week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Freddy Peralta
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xERA 3.79, 0.31 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.69 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 66ERA 3.79WHIP 1.37W 2–4SV 0
Peralta is a buy — skill metrics all point up.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.3%—−7.2% ▼vs his ~29.5% career norm
- Walk %9.4%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~9.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.79, 0.31 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
313 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
313 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
466 / 200 TBF
xERA3.79
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.31vs his norm —
466 / 200 TBF
ERA4.66
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.56vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
104.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −7.2% ▼
466 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
466 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
313 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
466 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
466 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
1893 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→24.5%signal66 K — K% 22.3% (signal) lifted to career ~29.5% → projected 24.5% over ~58 remaining IP.
xERA 3.79signal3.79 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.79 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.4% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep66 K ROS, 3.79 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.