MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Freddy Peralta
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Freddy Peralta

TB·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.92); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 15ERA 3.92WHIP 1.34W 0–1SV 0

Peralta is a hold — league average on all fronts.

His expected ERA is 3.92, sitting just 18 points below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters — 667 — for that number to be reliable. The contact quality allowed backs it up: a 39% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average, 6.3% barrels against 8%, and a .306 expected wOBA allowed. He strikes out 21.3% of batters and walks 8.2%, both right at league average. Nothing here is being held up by luck, and nothing is being dragged down by it either. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is the one mild lean, but it starts from average and lands at average. There is no edge to buy and no reason to sell. Hold. 15 K and a 3.92 ERA the rest of the way — nothing to chase here, just a streaming-only arm to hold at the fringe.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.3%—−8.2% ▼vs his ~29.5% career norm
  • Walk %8.2%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.92)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.0%
39.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
462 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
462 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
667 / 200 TBF
xERA3.92
3.92*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —
667 / 200 TBF
ERA4.82
4.82*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
153 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.3%
norm21.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −8.2% ▼
667 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
667 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
.297*
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
462 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.4%
12.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
667 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
31.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
667 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
2683 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.3%→23.2%signal15 K — K% 21.3% (signal) lifted to career ~29.5% → projected 23.2% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.92signal3.92 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.92 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop15 K ROS, 3.92 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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