MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Freddy Peralta
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Freddy Peralta

TB·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.84); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.84WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0

Peralta is a hold — his numbers sit right at league average.

His expected ERA is 3.84 against a league average of 4.10, a gap small enough that it reads as ordinary rather than as a skill edge. He has faced 730 batters, well past the point where that number becomes reliable, so this is the level he is at. His expected wOBA allowed of .302 matches the story: mildly better than league, not a difference that changes a roster decision. The rate stats back that up — he strikes out 21.4% of batters against a 22.0% league mark, and his walk rate of 8.6% is a touch above the 8.0% average, so the strikeout and walk profile is essentially neutral. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, which is worth watching but has not yet moved him into buy territory. Nothing here is unstable; there is no luck stat dragging the line either way. Hold. A 0 K / 3.84 ERA / 1.34 WHIP line is a deep-league hold, not an asset — no action needed.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.4%—−8.1% ▼vs his ~29.5% career norm
  • Walk %8.6%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.84)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.2%
37.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
503 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
503 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
730 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —
730 / 200 TBF
ERA4.42
4.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
169 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
norm21.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −8.1% ▼
730 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
730 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
.290*
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
503 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
730 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
31.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
730 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
94.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
2959 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→23.1%signal0 K — K% 21.4% (signal) lifted to career ~29.5% → projected 23.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.84signal3.84 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.84 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.84 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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