MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
125 PA · week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Jonny DeLuca

TB·RF
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP 0.330 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.277 is 0.034 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.64
ROSHR 3AVG .249R 35RBI 39SB 12

DeLuca is a sell-high — BABIP inflates, skill doesn't.

Limited data, but the surface is already over its skis. His actual wOBA is .311, but his expected wOBA — the luck-free skill — is .277, 34 points lower. The gap is driven by a BABIP of .330, which is .035 above league average and nowhere near stable at just 94 balls in play. BABIP needs around 800 to be reliable. The skill behind that number is thin: his exit velocity is 85.5 mph (3.5 below league), hard-hit rate is 29.8% (10 points below), and barrel rate is 3.2% (half the league's 8%). His walk rate is 4.0%, well below league average. The production is a mirage. Sell high. 3 HR, 35 R, 39 RBI, 12 SB, .249 AVG: trade window for this deep-league asset before regression hits.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.2%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~3.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.330 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.277 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.5 mph
85.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.5 mphvs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.2%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.2%
norm3.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.277
.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
125 / 160 PA
wOBA.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
125 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.8%
20.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
125 / 60 PA
Walk %4.0%
4.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
125 / 120 PA
BABIP.330
norm.330*
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm +.041 ▲BABIP is above his ~.289 norm — expect it to fall.
94 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.2%→3.7%signal3 HR — Barrel% 3.2% (signal) lifted to career ~3.9% → projected 3.7%.
BABIP 0.330→0.307 regressednoise.249 AVG — BABIP 0.330 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.303 (xBA 0.252) → 0.307.
on-base + lineup35 R — his run rate over ~256 projected PA.
slugging + lineup39 RBI — his RBI rate over ~256 projected PA.
run rate / role12 SB — his steal rate (6 in 41 G) over ~256 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups