MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Jesse Scholtens

TB·P
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.96 is 1.14 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 53ERA 3.90WHIP 1.25W 5–14SV 0

Scholtens is a sell-high — his ERA is lucky, not real.

His ERA is 3.82, but the number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against at .259 — 36 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 120. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.96, more than a run higher than his actual ERA. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, and the signal from his contact management is already clear. He allows a 10.8% barrel rate against a league average of 8.0%, and his hard-hit rate is near league average. His strikeout rate is 18.3%, below the league 22.0%. There is no elite-stuff story to lean on when the BABIP normalizes. Sell high. 53 K over 5-14 wins with 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP — that's a streaming-only asset, not a hold. Sell the line.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.3%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.96 is 1.14 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.5%
37.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
120 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
.346*
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 200 TBF
xERA4.96
4.96*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.86vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
164 / 200 TBF
ERA3.82
3.82*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.28vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
37.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
norm18.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
164 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −0.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.6% norm — expect it to rise.
164 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.259
.259*
lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→17.7%signal53 K — K% 18.3% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 17.7% over ~69 remaining…
xERA 4.96noise3.90 ERA — xERA 4.96 (noise) blended 16% skill / 84% league 3.70 at 38 IP.
BB% 6.7% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 16…
run support + role5-14 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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