MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 28, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Jesse Scholtens

TB·P
data as of September 28, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.26 is 1.23 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0WHIP 1.26ERA 3.95W 0–0SV 0

Scholtens is a sell-high — his 4.03 ERA is running on luck.

His ERA sits at 4.03, but the number holding it there is his BABIP-against: .267, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 145. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.26 — 1.23 runs worse than the scoreboard — and the underlying numbers back the higher figure: he strikes out just 17.3% of batters against a 22% league average, and he gives up 10.3% barrels against 8%. The one thing he does well is avoid hard contact, at 35.2% versus 40%, but that is not enough to carry the profile. Limited data here — no baseline or trajectory to lean on — but the run-prevention skill is thin and the luck is doing the heavy lifting. Sell high. The ROS line (0 K / 3.95 ERA / 1.26 WHIP / 0-0 W / 0 SV) says streaming-only, so treat the sell-high window as a drop.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.1%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
  • Strikeout %17.3%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~17.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.26 is 1.23 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
145 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
145 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.348
.348*
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
196 / 200 TBF
xERA5.26
5.26*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.16vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
196 / 200 TBF
ERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
44.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.3%
norm17.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
196 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
196 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
.267*
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
196 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.7%
30.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
196 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.1 mph
93.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
723 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.3%→17.3%signal0 K — K% 17.3% (signal) tempered to career ~17.3% → projected 17.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.26noise3.95 ERA — xERA 5.26 (noise) blended 16% skill / 84% league 3.70 at 38 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 16…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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