MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Griffin Jax
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Griffin Jax

TB·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.30 +1.20 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 27ERA 4.74WHIP 1.28W 0–1SV 0

Jax is a sell — his xERA is above league and rising.

His expected ERA sits at 5.30, which is a full 1.20 runs above the league average of 4.10. That number is reliable — he has faced enough batters for xERA to stabilize. His actual ERA is not mentioned, but there is no luck story to fall back on. He allows a 10.5% barrel rate, well above the 8.0% league average, and his xwOBA allowed is .352 against a league average of .315. His strikeout rate is above league at 24.7%, and his whiff and chase rates are strong, but the contact quality he allows is clearly below average. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, meaning the underlying skill is getting worse, not better. This is the level he is at. Sell. 27 K with 4.74 ERA and 1.28 WHIP is a drop-worthy skill; sell before the underlying weaknesses cost you.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.7%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~26.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.7%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.30 +1.20 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
190 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
190 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.352
believable since Jun 20.352*
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —
287 / 200 TBF
xERA5.30
5.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.20vs his norm —
287 / 200 TBF
ERA3.47
3.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.63vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
70 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
norm24.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
287 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
287 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.282
.282*
lg avg .295 ▼−.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
190 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
287 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
287 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.2 mph
96.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.2 mphvs his norm —
1063 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→25.6%signal27 K — K% 24.7% (signal) lifted to career ~26.8% → projected 25.6% over ~28 remaining IP.
xERA 5.30signal4.74 ERA — xERA 5.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 34 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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