MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Griffin Jax
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Griffin Jax

TB·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.27); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.07WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0

Jax is a hold — the run prevention is exactly league average

His expected ERA is 4.27, seventeen points off the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 459 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed of .317 sits right on the league mark of .315, and the contact he allows matches: a 39.2% hard-hit rate against a 40.0% league average, 8.5% barrels against 8.0%. The strikeout and walk numbers look better than the run prevention, though. He strikes out 25.3% of batters while walking 7.6%, and his swinging-strike rate of 14.4% and chase rate of 35.1% both sit well above league. His expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample, which points at the contact numbers rather than the strikeouts as the true read. The stuff is above average; the results are average. Hold. Deep-league hold: 0 K / 4.07 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 0-0 W / 0 SV is a flat asset, not a drag — no move needed.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.3%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~26.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.6%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.27)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
306 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
306 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
believable since Jun 20.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —
459 / 200 TBF
xERA4.27
4.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.17vs his norm —
459 / 200 TBF
ERA3.52
3.52*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.58vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
112.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
norm25.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
459 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
459 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
.286*
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
306 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
459 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
459 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
95.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
1728 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.3%→25.8%signal0 K — K% 25.3% (signal) lifted to career ~26.8% → projected 25.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.27signal4.07 ERA — xERA 4.27 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 34 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep4.07 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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