MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Liam Hicks
507 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Liam Hicks

TB·C
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.318); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .237HR 0R 5RBI 9SB 0

Hicks is a hold — near league average and stable.

His expected wOBA is .318, right at the league average of .315, and he has 507 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. What stands out is how he gets there: he strikes out just 9.5% of the time against a league average of 22%, and he swings and misses only 4.6% of the time. That is an extreme contact profile, and it is stable. The issue is that his contact is soft — 84.8 mph average exit velocity, 27.5% hard-hit, and 4.0% barrels, all well below league. His actual wOBA of .358 sits above his expected number, and his xwOBA has been stepping up across the sample. Nothing here is being driven by an unstable stat, so there is no regression to sell against. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.0%+0.5%vs his ~3.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.318)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.8 mph
84.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −4.2 mphvs his norm —
397 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 40.0% −12.5%vs his norm —
397 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.0%
norm4.0%*
lg avg 8.0% −4.0%vs his norm +0.5%
397 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.318
.318*
lg avg .315 +.003vs his norm —
507 / 160 PA
wOBA.358
believable since May 26.358*
lg avg .315 +.043vs his norm —
507 / 200 PA
Strikeout %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 22.0% −12.5%vs his norm —
507 / 60 PA
Walk %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 8.5% +1.6%vs his norm —
507 / 120 PA
BABIP.286
norm.286*
lg avg .295 −.009vs his norm +.008 BABIP is above his ~.278 normexpect it to fall.
397 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %4.6%
4.6%*
lg avg 11.0% −6.4%vs his norm —
507 / 50 PA
Chase %27.0%
27.0%*
lg avg 28.5% −1.5%vs his norm —
507 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.0%→3.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.0% (signal) tempered to career ~3.5% → projected 3.8%.
BABIP 0.286→0.259 regressednoise.237 AVG — BABIP 0.286 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.232 (xBA 0.258) → 0.259.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.
slugging + lineup9 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 58 G) over ~42 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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