MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ian Seymour
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Ian Seymour

TB·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.48, 0.62 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.79
ROSK 25ERA 3.48WHIP 1.25W 1–4SV 1–3

Seymour is a buy — skill metrics are stable and strong.

His expected ERA is 3.48, 0.62 below league average, and with 270 batters faced that number is trustworthy. He suppresses hard contact (35.9% hard-hit allowed, well below league's 40.0%) over 167 batted balls, past the 50 BBE stabilization point. He strikes out 27.8% of batters, above the 22.0% league average, and his swinging-strike rate (14.4%) and chase rate (33.4%) are both well above league norms. The only below-average mark is fastball velocity (91.7 mph), but he compensates by missing bats and limiting damage. His xERA has been stepping down over the course of the sample, suggesting he is settling in rather than peaking. The skill is real and the number says it is earned. Buy. 25 K and a 3.48 ERA make him a deep-league asset worth acquiring now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.8%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~26.3% career norm
  • Walk %8.9%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~8.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.48, 0.62 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
35.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
167 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
167 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
believable since Jun 26.291*
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —
270 / 200 TBF
xERA3.48
3.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —
270 / 200 TBF
ERA4.59
4.59*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.49vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
64.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.8%
norm27.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
270 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
270 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
.265*
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
14.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
270 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
270 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
91.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
1056 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.8%→27.2%signal25 K — K% 27.8% (signal) tempered to career ~26.3% → projected 27.2% over ~23 remaining…
xERA 3.48signal3.48 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.48 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.9% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-3 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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