MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ian Seymour
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Ian Seymour

TB·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.55, 0.55 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.77
ROSK 0ERA 3.55WHIP 1.13W 0–0SV 0–0

Seymour is a buy — his expected ERA is earned, not luck

His expected ERA is 3.55, .55 below the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which says the skill is settling in rather than drifting. His expected wOBA allowed is .291 against a league average of .315, so the contact he gives up is soft by the standards of the league. He strikes out 28.7% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 15.2% is well above league. The stuff is doing the work. Nothing in his profile is being propped up by a luck stat. Buy. A 3.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP make him a deep-league asset worth stashing now, before the ratios firm up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.7%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~26.3% career norm
  • Walk %6.5%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.55, 0.55 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
352 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
352 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
believable since Jun 26.291*
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —
551 / 200 TBF
xERA3.55
3.55*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.55vs his norm —
551 / 200 TBF
ERA4.21
4.21*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.11vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
132.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.7%
norm28.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
551 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
norm6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
551 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
.275*
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
352 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
15.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
551 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.3%
35.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
551 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.4 mph
91.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
2123 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.7%→28.1%signal0 K — K% 28.7% (signal) tempered to career ~26.3% → projected 28.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.55signal3.55 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.55 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.5% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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