MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ian Seymour
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Ian Seymour

TB·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.62, 0.48 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.74
ROSK 6ERA 3.62WHIP 1.15W 0–1SV 0–1

Seymour is a buy — the skill is earned, not lucky.

His expected ERA is 3.62, which is 0.48 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced nearly 500 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. He strikes out 28.8% of batters, almost seven points above league, and his swinging-strike rate of 14.9% and chase rate of 35.1% show a pitcher who is missing bats and getting hitters to expand. He allows a hard-hit rate of 36.2%, below the league average of 40%, and his xwOBA allowed of .295 is lower than the league average of .315. His expected ERA has also stepped down across the sample. The strikeout rate and walk rate are the foundation here, and there is no luck stat propping up the line. Buy. A 6 K, 3.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP line makes him a deep-league asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.8%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~26.3% career norm
  • Walk %6.8%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.62, 0.48 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
309 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
309 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
believable since Jun 26.295*
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
486 / 200 TBF
xERA3.62
3.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.48vs his norm —
486 / 200 TBF
ERA4.33
4.33*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.23vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
116.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.8%
norm28.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
486 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
486 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.281
.281*
lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
309 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
14.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
486 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
486 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.4 mph
91.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
1897 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.8%→28.1%signal6 K — K% 28.8% (signal) tempered to career ~26.3% → projected 28.1% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.62signal3.62 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.62 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.15 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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