week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Tyler Wells
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.94 is 0.50 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.221 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.85 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 2.94WHIP 1.14W 0–0SV 0
Wells is a sell-high — his ERA is hiding behind BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.6%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~22.8% career norm
- Walk %6.3%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~6.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.221 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.94 is 0.50 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.0%vs his norm —
182 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
182 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.267
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —
270 / 200 TBF
xERA2.94
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.16vs his norm —
270 / 200 TBF
ERA2.44
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
70 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
270 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
270 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.221
lg avg .295 ▼−.074vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
182 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
270 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
270 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
1044 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.6%→24.4%signal5 K — K% 25.6% (signal) tempered to career ~22.8% → projected 24.4% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.94signal2.94 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.94 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.3% + contactsignal1.14 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.278 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.94 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.