MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kevin Kelly
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Kevin Kelly

TB·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.37 is 0.93 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.37WHIP 1.12W 0–0SV 0–0

Kelly is a sell-high — the ERA is built on BABIP luck

His ERA sits at 2.44, but the ball-in-play number under it is not believable. His BABIP-against is .251 against a league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 202. That gap is luck, and it explains most of the gap between the ERA and his expected ERA of 3.37 — a run of difference pointing at regression. The underlying skill is decent, not dominant: he strikes out 22.6% of batters, near league average, though his 3.9% walk rate is well below league and his chase rate of 34.6% is well above. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the ball-in-play luck has been masking the direction. Sell high. Projected 0 K / 3.37 ERA / 1.12 WHIP, a deep-league hold at best — move the inflated line for a real asset now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.6%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~21.0% career norm
  • Walk %3.9%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~4.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.37 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
44.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
202 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
202 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
believable since Aug 10.284*
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —
279 / 200 TBF
xERA3.37
3.37*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.73vs his norm —
279 / 200 TBF
ERA2.44
2.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
73.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.6%
norm22.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
279 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.9%
norm3.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
279 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
.251*
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
202 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
279 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.6%
34.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
279 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
93.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
987 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.6%→21.9%signal0 K — K% 22.6% (signal) tempered to career ~21.0% → projected 21.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.37signal3.37 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.37 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 3.9% + contactsignal1.12 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.12 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.37 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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