MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kevin Kelly
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Kevin Kelly

TB·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.65 is 1.52 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 3ERA 3.65WHIP 1.13W 0–1SV 0–1

Kelly is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.

His ERA is 2.13, but that number is propped up by a BABIP-against of .226, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 184. That gap is luck, not skill, and it is the only thing making the box score look clean. His expected ERA is 3.65, a run and a half above what he has actually allowed. That xERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the regression is already forming underneath the surface. His strikeout rate of 21.4% is right at league average and his swinging-strike rate is 10.5%, also near average — there is no missing bat here to fall back on when the bounces stop going his way. Sell high. Sell high now: 3 K / 3.65 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 0-1 W / 0-1 SV is a deep-league drag, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.4%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~21.0% career norm
  • Walk %4.4%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~4.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.65 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.7%
45.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
184 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
184 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.296
believable since Aug 10.296*
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —
252 / 200 TBF
xERA3.65
3.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —
252 / 200 TBF
ERA2.13
2.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.97vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
67.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
norm21.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
252 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.4%
norm4.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
252 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.226
.226*
lg avg .295 ▼−.069vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
10.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
252 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.0%
33.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
252 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.1 mph
93.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
893 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→21.2%signal3 K — K% 21.4% (signal) tempered to career ~21.0% → projected 21.2% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.65signal3.65 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.65 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 4.4% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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