week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Joe Boyle
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.98); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Boyle is a hold — league average, nothing unstable underneath.
ROS projects K 16 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.9%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~25.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.98)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
51 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
51 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 200 TBF
xERA3.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.12vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
81 / 200 TBF
ERA5.21
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.11vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
19 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
81 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm −2.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.7% norm — expect it to rise.
81 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.240
lg avg .295 ▼−.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
51 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
81 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
347 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.9%→25.3%signal0 K — K% 25.9% (signal) tempered to career ~25.1% → projected 25.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.98noise4.10 ERA — xERA 3.98 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 16 IP.
BB% 11.1% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.