156 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Ryan Vilade
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.310); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .224R 14RBI 31SB 3
Vilade is a hold — league-average profile, no edge either way.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .278 YTD → .224 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.310)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
110 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
156 / 160 PA
wOBA.341
lg avg .315 ▲+.026vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
156 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
156 / 60 PA
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
156 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
110 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
156 / 50 PA
Chase %27.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
156 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.4%→6.7%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.4% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 6.7%.
BABIP 0.284→0.257 regressednoise.224 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.253 (xBA 0.240) → 0.257.
on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~145 projected PA.
slugging + lineup31 RBI — his RBI rate over ~145 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (2 in 34 G) over ~145 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.