Is Ryan Vilade a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Ryan Vilade's rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .335 beats league .315 with 89.9 mph exit velo

236 PA · week 25

this weekBUY

last weekSELL-HIGH

Ryan Vilade

TB·RF

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026

Buy stable xwOBA 0.335, +0.020 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.64

ROSAVG .239HR 0R 3RBI 7SB 1

Vilade is a buy — his contact quality keeps climbing.

His expected wOBA is .335, .020 above the league average of .315, and with 236 plate appearances he has well past the 160 needed for that number to be reliable. The contact quality underneath is doing the work, and it has been stepping up across the sample — his hard-hit rate sits at 40.4% and his average exit velocity at 89.9 mph, both above league, on 162 batted balls that clear the stabilization threshold. He is not living on batted-ball luck. His actual wOBA is .345, essentially in line with his expected mark, and his strikeout rate is league-average at 22%. The bat is real, and it is pointed the right direction. Buy.

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.335, +0.020 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo89.9 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —

162 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %40.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —

162 / 50 BBE

Barrel %7.4%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —

162 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.335

lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —

236 / 160 PA

wOBA.345

lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —

236 / 200 PA

Strikeout %22.0%

lg avg 22.0% 0.0%vs his norm —

236 / 60 PA

Walk %8.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —

236 / 120 PA

BABIP.293

lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

162 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —

236 / 50 PA

Chase %27.5%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —

236 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 7.4%→7.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.4% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 7.5%.

BABIP 0.293→0.281 regressednoise.239 AVG — BABIP 0.293 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.278 (xBA 0.260) → 0.281.

on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~33 projected PA.

slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~33 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (2 in 34 G) over ~33 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons