MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Richie Palacios
399 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Richie Palacios

TB·2B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.306); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Palacios is a hold — league average, with a quiet bat underneath.

His expected wOBA is .306, nine points below the league average of .315, and his actual wOBA of .316 tracks right with it. There is no luck story pulling the line up or down. The contact quality is where this gets interesting: 86.2 mph average exit velocity and a 28.8% hard-hit rate are both well below league, so the surface production is being propped up by the plate discipline, not the bat. He strikes out 17% of the time and walks 11.5%, both better than league. His expected wOBA has stepped down across the sample, which tells you the skill is drifting the wrong way rather than building. Nothing here is unstable enough to force a move, and nothing is strong enough to chase. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.9%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.306)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.2 mph
86.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.8 mphvs his norm —
281 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.8%
28.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.2%vs his norm —
281 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.9%
norm3.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
281 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.306
believable since Jun 15.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
399 / 160 PA
wOBA.316
.316*
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
399 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.0%
17.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
399 / 60 PA
Walk %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
399 / 120 PA
BABIP.264
norm.264*
lg avg .295 ▼−.031vs his norm −.017 ▼BABIP is below his ~.281 norm — expect it to rise.
281 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
399 / 50 PA
Chase %32.5%
32.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
399 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.9%→4.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.9% (signal) lifted to career ~4.7% → projected 4.2%.
BABIP 0.264→0.288 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.264 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.300 (xBA 0.243) → 0.288.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (7 in 42 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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