Rest of Season Projection
AdrianCategoryBryan
45K ←43
3.61ERA ←3.67
1.23WHIP ←1.24
4–8W ←1–2
1–2SV →17–31
Current Season
AdrianCategoryBryan
35K ←29
3.90ERA →2.22
1.07WHIP1.07
4W ←1
1SV →16
What Each Player's System Trusts
Adrian Morejon
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.71 sits 1.39 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.321 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Bryan Baker
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.84 is 0.71 above the ERA — regression coming
Adrian Morejon: 45 K / 3.61 ERA. Bryan Baker: 43 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).