MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Adrian Morejon
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Adrian Morejon

SD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.32, 1.78 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 6ERA 2.32WHIP 1.18W 0–1SV 0–0

Morejon is a buy — his expected ERA is barely above two and a half

His expected ERA is 2.32, a full 1.78 below the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 322 batters faced is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. That gap between his xERA and league average is earned, not the product of a suppressed BABIP-against. He allows hard contact on just 31% of batted balls against a 40% league average, and his barrel rate allowed is 2.5% against 8.0%. His fastball is sitting at 99.3 mph, and it has stepped up across the sample while his xERA has stepped down. He strikes out 29.8% of batters and walks just 7.5%. There is no luck component to regress. Buy. With a 2.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP ROS, that's an asset on the wire in standard formats — grab before the window shuts.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.8%—+5.0% ▲vs his ~24.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~6.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.32, 1.78 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.0%vs his norm —
197 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.5%
2.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
197 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.237
believable since Jul 13.237*
lg avg .315 ▼−.078vs his norm —
322 / 200 TBF
xERA2.32
2.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.78vs his norm —
322 / 200 TBF
ERA2.86
2.86*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
78.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.8%
norm29.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm +5.0% ▲
322 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
322 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
.295*
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
197 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.8%
17.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
322 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.3%
38.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.8%vs his norm —
322 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.3 mph
99.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.3 mphvs his norm —
1220 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.8%→27.9%signal6 K — K% 29.8% (signal) tempered to career ~24.8% → projected 27.9% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.32signal2.32 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.32 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.18 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard1 SV, 2.32 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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