MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Adrian Morejon
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Adrian Morejon

SD·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.34, 1.76 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.34WHIP 1.19W 0–0SV 0–0

Morejon is a buy — his expected ERA is under 3 and earned.

His expected ERA is 2.34 — 1.76 runs better than the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. What is driving it is contact quality: hitters are barreling just 2.8% of batted balls against him, well under the 8.0% league mark, and his expected wOBA allowed of .237 is 78 points below league. His strikeout rate is 30.4%, eight points above league, and a swinging-strike rate of 18.0% against a league average of 11.0% says that is not luck. He walks 8.0% of batters, exactly league average, so the strikeouts are not costing him control. The fastball is sitting at 99.3 mph and climbing across the sample, which is what the whiffs look like. This is earned run prevention, not a hot streak. Buy. A 2.34 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with zero saves is a ratio asset now — chase the win and save chances later.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %30.4%—+5.7% ▲vs his ~24.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.0%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~6.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.34, 1.76 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.5%
32.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —
212 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.8%
2.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
212 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.237
believable since Jul 13.237*
lg avg .315 ▼−.078vs his norm —
352 / 200 TBF
xERA2.34
2.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.76vs his norm —
352 / 200 TBF
ERA2.83
2.83*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.27vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.4%
norm30.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.4%vs his norm +5.7% ▲
352 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
norm8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
352 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.293
.293*
lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
212 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.0%
18.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
352 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.6%
38.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.1%vs his norm —
352 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.3 mph
99.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.3 mphvs his norm —
1318 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.4%→28.4%signal0 K — K% 30.4% (signal) tempered to career ~24.8% → projected 28.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.34signal2.34 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.34 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.0% + contactsignal1.19 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard1 SV, 2.34 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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