MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Adrian Morejon
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Adrian Morejon

SD·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.49, 1.61 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 25ERA 2.49WHIP 1.15W 2–4SV 1–1

Morejon is a buy — elite contact suppression, no luck needed.

His expected ERA is 2.49, a full 1.61 below league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The surface and skill agree: his actual ERA tracks close to xERA, so no luck story is propping the line up. His contact suppression is elite — just 2.3% barrels allowed (league is 8.0%) on a stable 132 batted balls. He also strikes out 28.4% of batters, walks only 5.9%, and posts a 17.6% swinging-strike rate. All of those are past their stabilization thresholds. His fastball velocity has stepped up across the sample, now at 99.2 mph — 5 mph above league. The run prevention is earned, the stuff is real, and the trajectory is still rising. Buy. 25 K with 2.49 ERA and 1.15 WHIP make him a standard-league asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.4%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~24.8% career norm
  • Walk %5.9%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~6.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.49, 1.61 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.9%vs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.3%
2.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —
132 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.247
believable since Jul 13.247*
lg avg .315 ▼−.068vs his norm —
204 / 200 TBF
xERA2.49
2.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.61vs his norm —
204 / 200 TBF
ERA3.42
3.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
50 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.4%
norm28.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
204 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
norm5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
204 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.310
.310*
lg avg .295 ▲+.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
132 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.6%
17.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
204 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.8%
36.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
204 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.2 mph
99.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.2 mphvs his norm —
790 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.4%→26.6%signal25 K — K% 28.4% (signal) tempered to career ~24.8% → projected 26.6% over ~23 remaining…
xERA 2.49signal2.49 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.49 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.9% + contactsignal1.15 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard2 SV, 2.49 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups