Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryMason
55K →69
3.70ERA →3.58
1.24WHIP →1.23
0–0W →1–2
17–31SV →19–36
Current Season
AroldisCategoryMason
25K →49
0.48ERA ←0.72
0.86WHIP →0.84
0W →1
12SV →17
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Mason Miller
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (1.10)
Miller outpaces Chapman in K (69 vs 55) and WHIP (1.23 vs 1.24); Chapman trails despite ERA similarity (3.70 vs 3.58). The sell-high call for Chapman contrasts with a hold for Miller.