week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mason Miller
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (1.38); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 39ERA 3.59WHIP 1.23W 1–1SV 10–19
Miller is a hold — elite stuff, tiny sample, no verdict yet.
ROS projects K 49 YTD → 39 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %48.3%—+7.2% ▲vs his ~41.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (1.38)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed22.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−17.8%vs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.181
lg avg .315 ▼−.134vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 200 TBF
xERA1.38
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.72vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 200 TBF
ERA0.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
39.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %48.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+26.3%vs his norm +7.2% ▲
149 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −1.9% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.6% norm — expect it to rise.
149 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.286
lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
63 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %22.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+11.2%vs his norm —
149 / 60 TBF
Chase %37.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
149 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo101.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+7.3 mphvs his norm —
634 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 48.3%→44.2%signal39 K — K% 48.3% (signal) tempered to career ~41.1% → projected 44.2% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 1.38noise3.59 ERA — xERA 1.38 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactnoise1.23 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 0.94 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)10-19 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard32 SV, 3.59 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.