MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mason Miller
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Mason Miller

SD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 1.48, 2.62 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 9ERA 1.48WHIP 0.95W 0–0SV 2–4

Miller is a buy — the stuff is real and the sample proves it.

His expected ERA is 1.48 — 2.62 runs below the league average of 4.10 — and it has been stepping down across the sample, which is the wrong direction for a luck story. At 233 batters faced he is past the point where that number becomes reliable. The skill underneath is loud: he strikes out 48.5% of batters, and his swinging-strike rate of 21.9% is double the league average. His fastball is averaging 101.5 mph and has been ticking up. His walk rate of 9.0% is a shade above league average, the one crack in the profile, but it does not dent the case. The contact he allows is weak across the board. No luck is propping this up. Buy. 9 K and a 1.48 ERA over the ROS make him a shallow-league asset — acquire now before the saves catch up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %48.5%—+7.4% ▲vs his ~41.1% career norm
  • Walk %9.0%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~10.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 1.48, 2.62 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.9%
believable since Jun 2528.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.1%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.187
.187*
lg avg .315 ▼−.128vs his norm —
233 / 200 TBF
xERA1.48
1.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.62vs his norm —
233 / 200 TBF
ERA1.17
1.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.93vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
61.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %48.5%
norm48.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+26.5%vs his norm +7.4% ▲
233 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
233 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
.295*
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %21.9%
21.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+10.9%vs his norm —
233 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
233 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo101.5 mph
101.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+7.5 mphvs his norm —
999 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 48.5%→45.1%signal9 K — K% 48.5% (signal) tempered to career ~41.1% → projected 45.1% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 1.48signal1.48 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 1.48 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal0.95 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 0.95 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rostershallow20 SV, 1.48 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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