week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tyler Samaniego
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.82); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Samaniego is a hold — league average, nothing moving either way.
ROS projects K 15 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.82)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 200 TBF
xERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 200 TBF
ERA2.66
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.44vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
20.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
90 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.350
lg avg .295 ▲+.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
63 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
90 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
90 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
314 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.9%→19.9%signal0 K — K% 18.9% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 19.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.82noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.82 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 8.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.