week 28
this weekHOLD
last week—
Raymond Burgos
data as of October 2, 2026·week 28
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.15); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Burgos is a hold — near league average and nothing unstable underneath.
ROS projects K 4 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.15)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
65 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
65 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
82 / 200 TBF
xERA3.15
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
82 / 200 TBF
ERA4.22
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.12vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
21.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
82 / 70 TBF
Walk %1.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
82 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.230
lg avg .295 ▼−.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
65 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.5 mphvs his norm —
292 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.5%→20.4%signal0 K — K% 19.5% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 20.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.15noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.15 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 6 IP.
BB% 1.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 1% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.08 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.