105 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Jahmai Jones
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine; strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.190 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.high 0.77 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .206R 10RBI 12SB 0
Jones is a buy-low — his contact quality is being masked by BABIP noise.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.3%—−5.1% ▼vs his ~13.4% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.190 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −5.1% ▼
60 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.290
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 160 PA
wOBA.206
lg avg .315 ▼−.109vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.3%vs his norm —
105 / 60 PA
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
105 / 120 PA
BABIP.190
lg avg .295 ▼−.105vs his norm −.152 ▼BABIP is below his ~.342 norm — expect it to rise.
60 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
105 / 50 PA
Chase %29.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
105 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.3%→12.2%signal4 HR — Barrel% 8.3% (signal) lifted to career ~13.4% → projected 12.2%.
BABIP 0.190→0.273 regressednoise.206 AVG — BABIP 0.190 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.280 (xBA 0.215) → 0.273.
on-base + lineup10 R — his run rate over ~133 projected PA.
slugging + lineup12 RBI — his RBI rate over ~133 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 42 G) over ~133 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.