Is Caleb Durbin a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Caleb Durbin's rest-of-season outlook?

83 mph exit velo, 25% hard-hit — contact can't carry the 13.5% K rate

586 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Caleb Durbin

BOS·3B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell stable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60

ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Durbin is a sell — the contact is too soft to trust.

He is averaging 83.1 mph off the bat, six mph below league average, and that gap is not going away. His hard-hit rate is 25% against a league mark of 40%, and his barrel rate is 2.7% against 8%. Those contact numbers are stable across 440 batted balls, so this is the level he is at, not a cold stretch. His expected wOBA is .291, below the league average of .315, and it has been stepping down across the sample. His actual wOBA of .317 sits right at league average, so there is no suppressed BABIP to point to — the line is what it is. A 13.5% strikeout rate keeps him in the lineup and gives him a floor, but a floor is not an edge. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG ROS line is a pure streaming-only drop — no window here.

VS His Norm

Barrel %2.7%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~4.0% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.291 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo83.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.9 mphvs his norm —

440 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %25.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.0%vs his norm —

440 / 50 BBE

Barrel %2.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm −1.3% ▼

440 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.291

lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —

586 / 160 PA

wOBA.317

lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —

586 / 200 PA

Strikeout %13.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.5%vs his norm —

586 / 60 PA

Walk %8.7%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —

586 / 120 PA

BABIP.269

lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm +.004 ▲BABIP is above his ~.266 norm — expect it to fall.

440 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %7.6%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —

586 / 50 PA

Chase %28.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

586 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 2.7%→3.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.7% (signal) lifted to career ~4.0% → projected 3.1%.

BABIP 0.269→0.270 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.269 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.271 (xBA 0.234) → 0.270.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (4 in 52 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons