182 PA · week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Caleb Durbin
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Durbin is a sell — below-league skill with no luck story.
His expected wOBA is .266, which is .049 below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA tracks close to that, so there is no bad-luck mask. The problem is contact quality: his average exit velocity is 85.0 mph — four miles below league — and his hard-hit rate is 28.8% versus the league's 40.0%. His barrel rate is also well below average. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, so the trend is not his friend. He does strike out less than the typical hitter, but that is not enough to lift a bat that grades out this poorly. Sell.
Sell
med0.65
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.266 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.0 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL139 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL139 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL139 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.266
lg avg .315 ▼−.049trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL182 / 160 PA
wOBA.242
lg avg .315 ▼−.073too early to trust
NOISE182 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL182 / 60 PA
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL182 / 120 PA
BABIP.213
lg avg .295 ▼−.082too early to trust
NOISE139 / 800 BIP