MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
176 PA · week 12
this weekSELL
last week—

Trevor Story

BOS·SS
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xwOBA 0.248 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.68
ROSHR 6AVG .208R 27RBI 32SB 7

Story is a sell — the bat is below league and trending down.

His expected wOBA is .248, .067 below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA tracks right with it, so there is no bad-luck story pulling the line down. His barrel rate is 3.6% — less than half the league average of 8% — so the power projection is gone, and his strikeout rate is 32.4%, a full ten points above the league average and climbing as the sample wears on. His walk rate is 4.5%, roughly half the league rate, so he is not getting on base enough to make the high strikeout rate work. This is a bat that is producing exactly what the contact quality says it should, and the contact quality has been below average all year. There is no luck to come back. Sell. 6 HR / 27 R / 32 RBI / 7 SB / .208 AVG — a rotational-only streaming drop; no luck left to salvage.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.6%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~9.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.248 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.9 mph
88.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.8%
41.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.6%
norm3.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
110 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.248
.248*
lg avg .315 ▼−.067vs his norm —
176 / 160 PA
wOBA.244
.244*
lg avg .315 ▼−.071vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
176 / 60 PA
Walk %4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
176 / 120 PA
BABIP.290
norm.290*
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm −.037 ▼BABIP is below his ~.328 norm — expect it to rise.
110 / 800 BIP

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.6%→7.4%signal6 HR — Barrel% 3.6% (signal) lifted to career ~9.5% → projected 7.4%.
BABIP 0.290→0.294 regressednoise.208 AVG — BABIP 0.290 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.295 (xBA 0.212) → 0.294.
on-base + lineup27 R — his run rate over ~297 projected PA.
slugging + lineup32 RBI — his RBI rate over ~297 projected PA.
run rate / role7 SB — his steal rate (4 in 41 G) over ~297 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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