MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
176 PA · week 18
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Trevor Story

BOS·SS
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xwOBA 0.248 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.68
ROSHR 2AVG .203R 14RBI 17SB 3

Story is a sell — his bat is below league with no luck cushion.

His expected wOBA is .248, .067 below the league average of .315, and his 176 plate appearances cross the threshold for that number to be reliable. The xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, so the trend is backwards. His actual wOBA is similarly low, and his BABIP is near league average — there is no bad-luck story sheltering the line. His strikeout rate is 32.4%, ten points above league and stepping up across the sample, which caps any batting-average floor. His barrel rate is 3.6% against a league average of 8.0%, and his chase rate is 44.0% — far above the 28.5% league mark. The contact quality is not there and the plate discipline is not there. The skills are what the line says they are. Sell. A 2 HR, 14 R, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .203 AVG projection signals a clear drop asset — no skill upside left to buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.6%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~9.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.248 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.9 mph
88.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.8%
41.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.6%
norm3.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
110 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.248
.248*
lg avg .315 ▼−.067vs his norm —
176 / 160 PA
wOBA.242
.242*
lg avg .315 ▼−.073vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.4%
32.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —
176 / 60 PA
Walk %4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
176 / 120 PA
BABIP.290
norm.290*
lg avg .295 ▼−.005vs his norm −.037 ▼BABIP is below his ~.328 norm — expect it to rise.
110 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.6%
17.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
176 / 50 PA
Chase %44.0%
44.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+15.5%vs his norm —
176 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.6%→7.4%signal2 HR — Barrel% 3.6% (signal) lifted to career ~9.5% → projected 7.4%.
BABIP 0.290→0.294 regressednoise.203 AVG — BABIP 0.290 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.295 (xBA 0.212) → 0.294.
on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~153 projected PA.
slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~153 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (4 in 41 G) over ~153 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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