Is Trevor Story a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Trevor Story's rest-of-season outlook?

32.7% strikeouts with a .247 xwOBA — empty power

263 PA · week 27

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Trevor Story

BOS·SS

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27

Sell stable xwOBA 0.247 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.69

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Story is a sell — the strikeouts and weak contact are stable.

His expected wOBA is .247, which is .068 below the league average of .315, and he has 263 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .272, slightly above his expected mark, so there is no bad luck dragging the line down. He strikes out 32.7% of the time, against a league average of 22.0%, and he chases 43.9% of pitches outside the zone against a league average of 28.5%. That combination caps whatever floor he might have. His average exit velocity is 87.1 mph and his hard-hit rate is 36.4%, both below league, so the contact is not hiding a better hitter underneath. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample and his strikeout rate has been stepping up. That is a bad trend, not a slump. Sell. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG makes him a drop — waiver-wire fodder, not a stash.

VS His Norm

Barrel %5.5%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~9.5% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.247 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —

165 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %36.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —

165 / 50 BBE

Barrel %5.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −4.0% ▼

165 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.247

lg avg .315 ▼−.068vs his norm —

263 / 160 PA

wOBA.272

lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —

263 / 200 PA

Strikeout %32.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.7%vs his norm —

263 / 60 PA

Walk %4.2%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —

263 / 120 PA

BABIP.338

lg avg .295 ▲+.043vs his norm +.011 ▲BABIP is above his ~.328 norm — expect it to fall.

165 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %17.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —

263 / 50 PA

Chase %43.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+15.4%vs his norm —

263 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 5.5%→7.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.5% (signal) lifted to career ~9.5% → projected 7.7%.

BABIP 0.338→0.302 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.338 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.293 (xBA 0.211) → 0.302.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (4 in 41 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons