MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ranger Suarez
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Ranger Suarez

BOS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.63, 0.47 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.74
ROSK 0ERA 3.63WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Suarez is a buy — earned run prevention and trending better

His expected ERA is 3.63, well below the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The gap is not built on luck. He allows hard contact on 33.7% of batted balls against a 40.0% league rate, and barrels on 5.3% against 8.0%, so the contact he gives up is genuinely weak. His expected wOBA allowed of .294 backs that up. The direction matters too: his expected ERA has stepped down across the sample, meaning the strongest stretch is the recent one. He does not overpower anyone at 91.5 mph with a 9.8% swinging-strike rate below league, but the strikeout rate and walk rate are both steady around league average. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. 0 K / 3.63 ERA / 1.30 WHIP makes him a deep-league asset worth acquiring now despite the quiet strikeout column.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.9%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.63, 0.47 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
419 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
419 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.294
believable since May 26.294*
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
612 / 200 TBF
xERA3.63
3.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.47vs his norm —
612 / 200 TBF
ERA3.22
3.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.88vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
148.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
norm22.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
612 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
612 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.294
.294*
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
419 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
612 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
612 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
2384 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.9%→22.7%signal0 K — K% 22.9% (signal) tempered to career ~22.2% → projected 22.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.63signal3.63 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.63 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.63 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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