MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ranger Suarez
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Ranger Suarez

BOS·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Buy stable xERA 3.28, 0.82 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.85
ROSK 52ERA 3.28WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0

Suarez is a buy — his xERA proves the skill is real.

Ranger Suarez has an expected ERA of 3.28, which is just 0.82 below the league average of 4.10. He has faced 376 batters, making that xERA stable. His actual ERA has not appeared in the table, but the absence of a luck-inflated BABIP or suppressed xwOBA gap means the surface and skill are aligned. He limits hard contact: a 31.1% hard-hit rate allowed compared to the league's 40.0%, and barrels at 5.2% against the league's 8.0%. Both samples exceed their stabilization thresholds. He strikes out 25.8% of batters — above league — and walks just 6.9%. All the building blocks of a true above-average pitcher are here. Buy. 52 K, 3.28 ERA, 1.24 WHIP — deep-league asset, acquire before the wins surface.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.8%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
  • Walk %6.9%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.28, 0.82 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.1%
31.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.9%vs his norm —
251 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
5.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
251 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
.283*
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
376 / 200 TBF
xERA3.28
3.28*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.82vs his norm —
376 / 200 TBF
ERA3.15
3.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
91.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
norm25.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
376 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
norm6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
376 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.305
.305*
lg avg .295 ▲+.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
251 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
376 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
376 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
91.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
1446 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.8%→24.5%signal52 K — K% 25.8% (signal) tempered to career ~22.2% → projected 24.5% over ~56 remaining…
xERA 3.28signal3.28 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.28 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.9% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep52 K ROS, 3.28 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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