MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ranger Suarez
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Ranger Suarez

BOS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.72
ROSK 12ERA 3.70WHIP 1.31W 0–1SV 0

Suarez is a buy — the contact suppression is real and stable.

His expected ERA is 3.70, four-tenths of a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact quality backs it up: opponents are hard-hitting just 32.9% of balls against him, well under the 40% league mark, and his barrel rate allowed is 5.3% against 8.0%. Those samples are past the point where they become trustworthy. He strikes out 22.5% of batters and walks 7.4%, both near league average, so nothing here is being propped up by luck. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, which means the run prevention is improving. There is no suppressed BABIP or sequencing fluke to give back. Buy. 12 K and a 3.70 ERA the rest of the way is a deep-league asset, not a stash — add him now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.5%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~22.2% career norm
  • Walk %7.4%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.9%
32.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
374 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
374 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.298
believable since May 26.298*
lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —
543 / 200 TBF
xERA3.70
3.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.40vs his norm —
543 / 200 TBF
ERA3.44
3.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
130.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
543 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
543 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.304
.304*
lg avg .295 ▲+.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
374 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
543 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.3%
31.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
543 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
91.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
2104 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→22.4%signal12 K — K% 22.5% (signal) tempered to career ~22.2% → projected 22.4% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.70signal3.70 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.70 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep12 K ROS, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups