Willson Contreras

Contreras is a buy — elite contact, no luck needed.

His expected wOBA sits at .399 — 84 points above league average, and the sample is past the point where that metric becomes reliable. Both xwOBA and hard-hit rate have been trending up through the season, and his actual wOBA is nearly identical to the expected number, so no luck is inflating the line. His barrel rate is 14.2%, nearly double the league average of 8%, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate all clear their stabilization thresholds. The strikeout rate is slightly high at 25%, but the walk rate offsets it. The bat is performing at an elite level, and the data says it is real. Buy.