Is Willson Contreras a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy — stable, above-average metrics signal genuine skill. Good ROS add target.

What is Willson Contreras's rest-of-season outlook?

Barrel rate 13.4% with .374 xwOBA — real thump.

517 PA · week 25

this weekBUY

last weekBUY

Willson Contreras

BOS·1B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

ON THE 10-DAY IL

Buy stable xwOBA 0.374, +0.059 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.332 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.72

ROSHR 1AVG .234R 5RBI 6SB 0

Contreras is a buy — the bat is real, the average will settle

His expected wOBA is .374, .059 above the league average of .315, and he has 517 plate appearances behind it — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact quality backs it up and then some: a 13.4% barrel rate against a league average of 8.0%, and his hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample to 43.6%. That is a bat hitting the ball hard and doing it consistently. The caveat is his BABIP, .332 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 307, so expect some of his batting average to give back. That is the average, not the skill. The power and the on-base production are earned. Buy.

VS His Norm

Barrel %13.4%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~12.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.374, +0.059 vs league — production is earned
hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
babipNOISEBABIP 0.332 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —

307 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %43.6%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —

307 / 50 BBE

Barrel %13.4%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +0.8% ▲

307 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.374

lg avg .315 ▲+.059vs his norm —

517 / 160 PA

wOBA.390

lg avg .315 ▲+.075vs his norm —

517 / 200 PA

Strikeout %25.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —

517 / 60 PA

Walk %11.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —

517 / 120 PA

BABIP.332

lg avg .295 ▲+.037vs his norm +.012 ▲BABIP is above his ~.320 norm — expect it to fall.

307 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %15.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —

517 / 50 PA

Chase %34.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —

517 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 13.4%→13.1%signal1 HR — Barrel% 13.4% (signal) tempered to career ~12.7% → projected 13.1%.

BABIP 0.332→0.303 regressednoise.234 AVG — BABIP 0.332 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.285 (xBA 0.254) → 0.303.

on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~43 projected PA.

slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~43 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 56 G) over ~43 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons