MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Willson Contreras
364 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Willson Contreras

BOS·1B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.390, +0.075 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.337 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.high 0.75
ROSHR 7AVG .255R 22RBI 27SB 1

Contreras is a buy — elite contact, still room to grow.

His hard-hit rate has climbed to 46.7%, well above the league average of 40.0%, and at 225 batted balls it is fully stable. Barrel rate is 14.2%, nearly double the league mark. The contact quality is elite, and all of these samples are past the point where the numbers become reliable. His expected wOBA of .390 is .075 above league average, and with 364 plate appearances that is also a confirmed skill. His actual wOBA is .395, almost identical, so the production is earned — but his BABIP is .337, 42 points above league, and with only 225 balls in play it is not yet stable. A small pullback in BABIP is likely, but the underlying contact quality is too good for that to be a concern. The bat is real and the trajectory is still climbing. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %14.2%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~12.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.390, +0.075 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.337 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
225 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.7%
46.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
225 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.2%
norm14.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
225 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.390
.390*
lg avg .315 ▲+.075vs his norm —
364 / 160 PA
wOBA.395
.395*
lg avg .315 ▲+.080vs his norm —
364 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.7%
24.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
364 / 60 PA
Walk %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
364 / 120 PA
BABIP.337
norm.337*
lg avg .295 ▲+.042vs his norm +.017 ▲BABIP is above his ~.320 norm — expect it to fall.
225 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
364 / 50 PA
Chase %33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
364 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 14.2%→13.5%signal7 HR — Barrel% 14.2% (signal) tempered to career ~12.7% → projected 13.5%.
BABIP 0.337→0.320 regressednoise.255 AVG — BABIP 0.337 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.314 (xBA 0.274) → 0.320.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~192 projected PA.
slugging + lineup27 RBI — his RBI rate over ~192 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 56 G) over ~192 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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