Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryWillson
8HR →15
53R ←41
45RBI →52
8SB ←2
.210AVG →.260
Current Season
ChristianCategoryWillson
4HR →11
21R →26
18RBI →33
3SB ←1
.275AVG →.286
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Willson Contreras
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.396, +0.081 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Willson Contreras: 15 HR / 41 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).