Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategoryWillson
9HR →15
36R →41
36RBI →52
0SB →2
.314AVG ←.260
Current Season
AndrewCategoryWillson
1HR →11
10R →26
10RBI →33
0SB →1
.354AVG ←.286
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Vaughn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.393 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.347 is 0.066 below the surface — regression coming
Willson Contreras
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.396, +0.081 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Andrew Vaughn: 9 HR / 36 R. Willson Contreras: 15 HR / 41 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).