569 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Ceddanne Rafaela
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free skill 0.282 is 0.048 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.332 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.77 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .248R 4RBI 4SB 1
Rafaela is a sell-high — his BABIP is carrying the line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %5.2%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.332 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.282 is 0.048 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
425 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.2%vs his norm —
425 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
425 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.282
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —
569 / 160 PA
wOBA.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
569 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
569 / 60 PA
Walk %3.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
569 / 120 PA
BABIP.332
lg avg .295 ▲+.037vs his norm +.030 ▲BABIP is above his ~.302 norm — expect it to fall.
425 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
569 / 50 PA
Chase %45.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+16.9%vs his norm —
569 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.2%→6.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.2% (signal) lifted to career ~8.2% → projected 6.2%.
BABIP 0.332→0.312 regressednoise.248 AVG — BABIP 0.332 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.290 (xBA 0.247) → 0.312.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~41 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~41 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (6 in 55 G) over ~41 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.