212 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Ceddanne Rafaela
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Rafaela is a sell-high — his BABIP-driven line will regress.
His expected wOBA is .298, which is .044 below his actual wOBA of .342. The gap is BABIP: .336 against a league average of .295, and with only 148 balls in play—far short of the 800 needed to stabilize—that number is pure luck. Underneath the surface, the contact quality is below league: exit velocity 87.4 mph, hard-hit rate 37.8%, barrel rate 7.4%, all under league averages. The strikeout and walk rates are near average, so no discipline story masks the skill gap. The xwOBA trajectory is stepping down across the sample, confirming the regression is already starting. Sell high while the market prices the top-line wOBA.
Sell High
high0.76
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.336 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.298 is 0.044 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL148 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL148 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL148 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.298
lg avg .315 ▼−.017trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL212 / 160 PA
wOBA.342
lg avg .315 ▲+.027trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL212 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL212 / 60 PA
Walk %6.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL212 / 120 PA
BABIP.336
lg avg .295 ▲+.041too early to trust
NOISE148 / 800 BIP