576 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Ceddanne Rafaela
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free skill 0.285 is 0.047 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.336 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.77 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Rafaela is a sell-high — the average is standing on BABIP
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %5.4%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.336 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.285 is 0.047 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
429 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.1%vs his norm —
429 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
429 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.285
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —
576 / 160 PA
wOBA.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
576 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
576 / 60 PA
Walk %3.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
576 / 120 PA
BABIP.336
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm +.034 ▲BABIP is above his ~.302 norm — expect it to fall.
429 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
576 / 50 PA
Chase %45.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+16.8%vs his norm —
576 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.4%→6.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.4% (signal) lifted to career ~8.2% → projected 6.3%.
BABIP 0.336→0.316 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.336 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.293 (xBA 0.249) → 0.316.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (6 in 55 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.