Rest of Season Projection
CeddanneCategoryJames
10HR →22
38R →78
38RBI →57
10SB →15
.249AVG →.255
Current Season
CeddanneCategoryJames
5HR →16
23R →53
23RBI →39
6SB →10
.275AVG ←.272
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ceddanne Rafaela
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.340 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.303 is 0.041 below the surface — regression coming
James Wood
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.432, +0.117 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ceddanne Rafaela: 10 HR / 38 R. James Wood: 22 HR / 78 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).