MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Justin Slaten
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Justin Slaten

BOS·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.14 sits 0.96 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.431 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 21ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Slaten is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not reality.

Justin Slaten's ERA sits at 5.64, but the number covering it up is his BABIP-against: .431 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 64 — that gap is pure luck, not a reflection of his skill. Strip that out and his expected ERA is 3.14, nearly 2.5 runs lower than what the box score shows. He strikes out 30.7% of batters, well above league average, and his fastball velocity has been stepping up across the sample, now at 96.6 mph. The stuff is real; the surface is not. Buy low. 21 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP: a deep-league buy-low window on legit strikeout skill and suppressed ERA.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %30.7%—+6.9% ▲vs his ~23.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.14 sits 0.96 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.431 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.2%
believable since Jun 2542.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
64 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
64 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.277
.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
101 / 200 TBF
xERA3.14
3.14*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
101 / 200 TBF
ERA5.64
5.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.54vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
22.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.7%
norm30.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.7%vs his norm +6.9% ▲
101 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.9%
norm5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm +0.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~5.7% norm — expect it to fall.
101 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.431
.431*
lg avg .295 ▲+.136vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
101 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
29.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
101 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
96.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
376 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.7%→26.1%signal21 K — K% 30.7% (signal) tempered to career ~23.8% → projected 26.1% over ~18 remaining…
xERA 3.14noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.14 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 5.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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