week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL
Justin Slaten
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
new call
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 2.94 sits 1.16 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.369 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Slaten is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP, the arm is real
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.5%—+4.7% ▲vs his ~23.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 sits 1.16 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.369 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
90 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
90 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.266
lg avg .315 ▼−.049vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 200 TBF
xERA2.94
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.16vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 200 TBF
ERA4.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm +4.7% ▲
137 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm +0.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~5.7% norm — expect it to fall.
137 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.369
lg avg .295 ▲+.074vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
90 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
137 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
137 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
508 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.5%→25.7%signal0 K — K% 28.5% (signal) tempered to career ~23.8% → projected 25.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.94noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.94 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 5.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.