MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jovani Morán
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Jovani Morán

BOS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.35, 0.75 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.82
ROSK 0ERA 3.35WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Morán is a buy — the strikeout stuff backs the run prevention.

His expected ERA sits at 3.35, three-quarters of a run below the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. What makes it hold up is the contact he is allowing: a 29.3% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average, with 164 balls in play, past the point where contact quality stabilizes. He strikes out 26.8% of batters, well above the 22% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate of 14.7% points the same direction. The walk rate of 12.1% is the one soft spot, and it is the reason to keep expectations in check. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample rather than drifting up. The run prevention is earned, not propped up. Buy. At 3.35 ERA / 1.32 WHIP, a deep-league asset worth adding now before the strikeouts catch up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.8%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~28.6% career norm
  • Walk %12.1%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~13.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.35, 0.75 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.3%
29.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.7%vs his norm —
164 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
164 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
believable since Aug 11.283*
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
272 / 200 TBF
xERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —
272 / 200 TBF
ERA3.15
3.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
65.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.8%
norm26.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
272 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.1%
norm12.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
272 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.216
.216*
lg avg .295 ▼−.079vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
164 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
272 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.0%
29.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
272 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
1061 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.8%→27.6%signal0 K — K% 26.8% (signal) lifted to career ~28.6% → projected 27.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.35signal3.35 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.35 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 12.1% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.35 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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