week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jovani Morán
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.82); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 28ERA 3.61WHIP 1.25W 0–1SV 0
Morán is a hold — solid peripherals, xERA still noisy.
ROS projects K 35 YTD → 28 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %30.1%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~28.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.82)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.5%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 200 TBF
xERA2.82
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.28vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 200 TBF
ERA2.82
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.28vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
153 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm −1.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.0% norm — expect it to rise.
153 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.181
lg avg .295 ▼−.114vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
595 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.1%→29.2%signal28 K — K% 30.1% (signal) tempered to career ~28.6% → projected 29.2% over ~26 remaining…
xERA 2.82noise3.61 ERA — xERA 2.82 (noise) blended 10% skill / 90% league 3.70 at 31 IP.
BB% 11.8% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.61 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.