MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Curtis Mead
329 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Curtis Mead

BOS·3B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.358, +0.043 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.69
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Mead is a buy — the contact is climbing and the results are earned.

His hard-hit rate sits at 42.3% against a league average of 40.0%, and it has stepped up across the sample. That climb is the part to grip: the contact quality is getting better, not holding steady. Underneath it, his expected wOBA is .358 — .043 above the league average of .315 — on 329 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .370, so nothing here is being propped up by bounces. The strikeout and walk numbers back it up: he strikes out 19.1% of the time and walks 11.9%, both better than league. The average exit velocity of 88.0 mph is a touch below league, but the hard-hit and barrel rates are where the damage lives. The skill is real and improving. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.8%—+6.6% ▲vs his ~4.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.358, +0.043 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.0 mph
88.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
222 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.3%
42.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
222 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.8%
norm10.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +6.6% ▲
222 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.358
believable since Jun 2.358*
lg avg .315 ▲+.043vs his norm —
329 / 160 PA
wOBA.370
.370*
lg avg .315 ▲+.055vs his norm —
329 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.1%
19.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
329 / 60 PA
Walk %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
329 / 120 PA
BABIP.268
norm.268*
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm −.038 ▼BABIP is below his ~.306 norm — expect it to rise.
222 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
329 / 50 PA
Chase %25.1%
25.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
329 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.8%→7.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.8% (signal) tempered to career ~4.2% → projected 7.7%.
BABIP 0.268→0.262 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.268 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.259 (xBA 0.259) → 0.262.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 46 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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