Patrick Sandoval
Sandoval is a sell — the expected ERA is above league and climbing
His expected ERA is 4.86, .76 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. What makes it worse is the direction: the expected ERA has stepped up across the sample, so this is not a stabilized number that might drift back. His expected wOBA allowed of .336 sits 21 points above the league average, and he has the batters faced for that to count. He walks 10% of hitters against an 8% league mark, and his strikeout rate of 22.7% is only barely above average, so there is no swing-and-miss margin to cover the free passes. His hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are both better than league, but those gains do not offset the expected numbers. This is the level he is pitching at. Sell. 0 K and a 4.59 ERA ROS make this a clear drop, not a hold — the waiver wire is the move.
VS His Norm
- Walk %10.0%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~10.1% career norm
- Strikeout %22.7%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~22.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.86 +0.76 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.