MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Patrick Sandoval

BOS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 5.25 +1.15 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 11ERA 4.85WHIP 1.46W 0–0SV 0

Sandoval is a sell — his expected ERA is a run and a quarter above league.

His expected ERA is 5.25, 1.15 runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The trouble is not bad luck: his expected wOBA allowed is .349, .034 above league, so the contact he allows is genuinely worse than average. His walk rate is 10.7% against a league average of 8.0%, and that kind of elevated walk rate is a persistent problem, not noise. He strikes out 22.5% of batters, essentially league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 11.9% is only marginally above league. His xERA has been stepping up as the sample has grown, which means this is the level, not a rough patch. The skills are below league and nothing is suppressing the surface. Sell. With 11 K and a 4.85 ERA the rest of the way, Sandoval is a drop — deep-league streaming-only, not a stash.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.7%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~10.1% career norm
  • Strikeout %22.5%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~22.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.25 +1.15 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
35.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
168 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
.349*
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —
253 / 200 TBF
xERA5.25
5.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.15vs his norm —
253 / 200 TBF
ERA4.58
4.58*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.48vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
55 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
norm22.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −0.2% ▼
253 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.7%
norm10.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
253 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.398
.398*
lg avg .295 ▲+.103vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
168 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
253 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.1%
27.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
253 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
947 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.5%→22.6%signal11 K — K% 22.5% (signal) held to career ~22.7% → projected 22.6% over ~10 remaining IP.
xERA 5.25signal4.85 ERA — xERA 5.25 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 4 IP.
BB% 10.7% + contactsignal1.46 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.317 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.85 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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