MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyron Guerrero
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Tyron Guerrero

BOS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 2.79 sits 1.31 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.315 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.74
ROSK 7ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Guerrero is a buy-low — the arm is real, the ERA is noise.

The number keeping runs on the board for Guerrero is his BABIP-against: .315 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 114 — that gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. His expected ERA is 2.79, a full 1.31 runs below league average, and he is nearly there in sample. The contact-suppression skill backs it up: he allows a 33.3% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average, and a 3.5% barrel rate against 8%. He strikes out 22.6% of batters and gets a 13.3% swinging-strike rate, above league, with a fastball averaging 100.2 mph that has been stepping up across the sample. The stuff is not the problem. Buy low. A 7 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP ROS line makes him a deep-league buy — the dip is luck, not decline.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.6%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~23.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.79 sits 1.31 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.315 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.5%
3.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.260
.260*
lg avg .315 ▼−.055vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 200 TBF
xERA2.79
2.79*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.31vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 200 TBF
ERA3.26
3.26*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.84vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
38.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.6%
norm22.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
159 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.4%
norm4.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm −8.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.2% norm — expect it to rise.
159 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.315
.315*
lg avg .295 ▲+.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
159 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
159 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.2 mph
100.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.2 mphvs his norm —
573 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.6%→22.9%signal7 K — K% 22.6% (signal) lifted to career ~23.2% → projected 22.9% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 2.79noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.79 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 4.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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