week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Tyron Guerrero
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.59); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 24ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Guerrero is a hold — league average, nothing to act on.
ROS projects K 9 YTD → 24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.7%—+5.5% ▲vs his ~23.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.59)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.7%vs his norm —
53 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.252
lg avg .315 ▼−.063vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 200 TBF
xERA2.59
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.51vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 200 TBF
ERA2.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.77vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
19.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm +5.5% ▲
80 / 70 TBF
Walk %2.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm −10.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.2% norm — expect it to rise.
80 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
53 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
80 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
305 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.7%→24.8%signal24 K — K% 28.7% (signal) tempered to career ~23.2% → projected 24.8% over ~17 remaining…
xERA 2.59noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.59 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 2.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 2% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.01 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.