week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Tyron Guerrero
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.68); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Guerrero is a hold — the contact suppression points to more, but the sample is short
ROS projects K 9 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.7%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~23.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.68)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.0%vs his norm —
115 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
115 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.254
lg avg .315 ▼−.061vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
166 / 200 TBF
xERA2.68
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.42vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
166 / 200 TBF
ERA3.10
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.00vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
166 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −8.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.2% norm — expect it to rise.
166 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.313
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
115 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
166 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
166 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.2 mphvs his norm —
607 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→23.9%signal0 K — K% 24.7% (signal) tempered to career ~23.2% → projected 23.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.68noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.68 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 4.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.