MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Nick Sogard
273 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Nick Sogard

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 27, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.308); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Sogard is a hold — league-average skill, no luck driving it.

His expected wOBA is .308, seven points below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA of .324 tracks close enough to it that no luck story is dragging the line in either direction. His plate discipline is steady and slightly better than league: he strikes out 20.5% of the time, walks 11%, and chases 24.7% of pitches, all under control. The contact quality is the soft spot — 86.6 mph off the bat and a 28% hard-hit rate, both below league — and his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample. There is no edge here on either side. Hold. The 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line makes him a drop or streaming-only option in most formats.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.8%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~4.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.308)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.6 mph
believable since Aug 886.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphvs his norm —
186 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.0%
28.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.0%vs his norm —
186 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.8%
norm4.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
186 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.308
.308*
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
273 / 160 PA
wOBA.324
.324*
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
273 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.5%
20.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
273 / 60 PA
Walk %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
273 / 120 PA
BABIP.313
norm.313*
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm −.052 ▼BABIP is below his ~.365 norm — expect it to rise.
186 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
273 / 50 PA
Chase %24.7%
24.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
273 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.8%→4.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.8% (signal) tempered to career ~4.0% → projected 4.4%.
BABIP 0.313→0.296 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.313 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.291 (xBA 0.248) → 0.296.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 12 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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