week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jake Bennett
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.14 is 0.56 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.87 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21ERA 3.14WHIP 1.19W 2–4SV 0
Bennett is a sell-high — BABIP luck is propping his ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.14 is 0.56 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
176 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
176 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.276
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
xERA3.14
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
ERA2.58
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.52vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
59.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
229 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
229 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
176 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.7%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
803 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→19.0%signal21 K — K% 18.3% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 19.0% over ~39 remaining IP.
xERA 3.14signal3.14 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.14 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 3.9% + contactsignal1.19 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard21 K ROS, 3.14 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.