MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Jake Bennett

BOS·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Buy stable xERA 3.42, 0.68 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.80
ROSK 0ERA 3.42WHIP 1.21W 0–0SV 0

Bennett is a buy — his run prevention is earned, not lucky.

His expected ERA is 3.42, 0.68 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 455 batters, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. That is the whole case, and it holds up underneath. He strikes out 20% of batters, a touch below league, but he walks only 4.6% — barely half the league rate — so he is not handing out free baserunners. His expected wOBA allowed is .286, 29 points better than league. His chase rate of 37.4% shows hitters are swinging at pitches outside the zone, and his 12.7% swinging-strike rate sits above league. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. 0 K caps his ceiling, but 3.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP make him a deep-league asset worth adding now.

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.42, 0.68 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.9%
37.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
340 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
340 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
.286*
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —
455 / 200 TBF
xERA3.42
3.42*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.68vs his norm —
455 / 200 TBF
ERA3.65
3.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
113.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
20.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
455 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.6%
4.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
455 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.284
.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
340 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
455 / 60 TBF
Chase %37.4%
37.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.9%vs his norm —
455 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
1618 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→20.4%signal0 K — K% 20.0% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 20.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.42signal3.42 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.42 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 4.6% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.42 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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