week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Alec Gamboa
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.08 is 1.17 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Gamboa is a sell-high — the 1.91 ERA is running on luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.274 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.08 is 1.17 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.272
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
132 / 200 TBF
xERA3.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.02vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
132 / 200 TBF
ERA1.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
33 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
132 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
132 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.274
lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
132 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
132 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
466 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.4%→18.7%signal0 K — K% 17.4% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 18.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.08noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.08 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.