week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Alec Gamboa
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.55 is 1.22 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 8ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Gamboa is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.55 is 1.22 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.249
lg avg .315 ▼−.066vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 200 TBF
xERA2.55
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.55vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 200 TBF
ERA1.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.77vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
27 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
105 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
105 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.227
lg avg .295 ▼−.068vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
77 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
105 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
105 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
360 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→19.3%signal8 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 19.3% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 2.55noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.55 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.