week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Erik Miller
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.58); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 26ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–4
Miller is a hold — league-average profile, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 24 YTD → 26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %31.4%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~27.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.58)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.4%vs his norm —
62 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
62 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
121 / 200 TBF
xERA3.58
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.52vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
121 / 200 TBF
ERA3.29
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.81vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
27.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.4%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
121 / 70 TBF
Walk %16.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.5%vs his norm +1.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~14.7% norm — expect it to fall.
121 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.317
lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
62 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
563 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.4%→29.0%signal26 K — K% 31.4% (signal) tempered to career ~27.5% → projected 29.0% over ~19 remaining…
xERA 3.58noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.58 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 16.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.55 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-4 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.