MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Erik Miller
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Erik Miller

BOS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.15, 0.95 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.89
ROSK 0ERA 3.15WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0–0

Miller is a buy — the strikeouts and the fastball are both real

His expected ERA is 3.15, nearly a full run below the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to hold. The mechanics behind it back it up: he strikes out 32.6% of hitters against a 22% league mark, and his fastball is sitting at 96.8 mph while trending up — nearly three ticks above league. That velocity is the engine here, and it is climbing, not fading. The one crack is the walk rate, 15% against an 8% league average, and at this sample size that is a real problem he has to solve. But the contact he allows is soft — a .275 expected wOBA allowed and just 5.3% barrels — so the damage is limited even when he leaks a free pass. The expected ERA has been dropping as he goes. Buy. A 3.15 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with that 96.8 mph heat is a deep-league asset — stream him in and hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %32.6%—+5.1% ▲vs his ~27.5% career norm
  • Walk %15.0%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~14.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.15, 0.95 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed26.3%
believable since Jun 2626.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−13.7%vs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.275
.275*
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —
227 / 200 TBF
xERA3.15
3.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —
227 / 200 TBF
ERA2.98
2.98*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.12vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
51.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %32.6%
norm32.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.6%vs his norm +5.1% ▲
227 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.0%
norm15.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
227 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.312
.312*
lg avg .295 ▲+.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
114 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.0%
14.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
227 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
27.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
227 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
96.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
970 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 32.6%→30.2%signal0 K — K% 32.6% (signal) tempered to career ~27.5% → projected 30.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.15signal3.15 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.15 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 15.0% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.15 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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