week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Erik Miller
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.72); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–1
Miller is a hold — the ERA-driver is noise, not a verdict.
ROS projects K 24 YTD → 6 ROS, WHIP 1.41 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %35.2%—+7.7% ▲vs his ~27.5% career norm
- Walk %13.8%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~14.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.72)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed24.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.3%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.257
lg avg .315 ▼−.058vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
196 / 200 TBF
xERA2.72
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.38vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
196 / 200 TBF
ERA2.15
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.95vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46 / 200 IP
Strikeout %35.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+13.2%vs his norm +7.7% ▲
196 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
196 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
196 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
196 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
858 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 35.2%→31.3%signal6 K — K% 35.2% (signal) tempered to career ~27.5% → projected 31.3% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 2.72noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.72 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 13.8% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.