week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Luke Weaver
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.200 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.84 is 0.82 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.88 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20ERA 3.65WHIP 1.24W 1–3SV 0
Weaver is a sell-high — ERA is being held down by BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.9%—+4.1% ▲vs his ~23.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.200 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.84 is 0.82 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.264
lg avg .315 ▼−.051vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
154 / 200 TBF
xERA2.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
154 / 200 TBF
ERA2.02
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm +4.1% ▲
154 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.5% norm — expect it to rise.
154 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.200
lg avg .295 ▼−.095vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
581 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.9%→25.6%signal20 K — K% 27.9% (signal) tempered to career ~23.8% → projected 25.6% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 2.84noise3.65 ERA — xERA 2.84 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 7.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP, blended 5%…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.