week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Luke Weaver
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.99 is 0.46 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.241 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 2.99WHIP 1.18W 0–1SV 0
Weaver is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.7%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~23.8% career norm
- Walk %7.1%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~7.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.241 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.99 is 0.46 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
137 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
137 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.269
lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —
210 / 200 TBF
xERA2.99
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.11vs his norm —
210 / 200 TBF
ERA2.53
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.57vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
53.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm +2.9% ▲
210 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
210 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.241
lg avg .295 ▼−.054vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
210 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
210 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
800 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.7%→25.3%signal5 K — K% 26.7% (signal) tempered to career ~23.8% → projected 25.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.99signal2.99 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.99 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.18 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.99 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.