115 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Daniel Susac
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.286); BABIP 0.346 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .251R 9RBI 24SB 0
Susac is a hold — below-average contact quality, no luck story.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .293 YTD → .251 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.286)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.346 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.3%vs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
80 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 160 PA
wOBA.285
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
115 / 60 PA
Walk %5.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 120 PA
BABIP.346
lg avg .295 ▲+.051vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
115 / 50 PA
Chase %41.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.6%vs his norm —
115 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.0%→5.6%signal2 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.6%.
BABIP 0.346→0.323 regressednoise.251 AVG — BABIP 0.346 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.321 (xBA 0.248) → 0.323.
on-base + lineup9 R — his run rate over ~142 projected PA.
slugging + lineup24 RBI — his RBI rate over ~142 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 22 G) over ~142 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.