259 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW
Mookie Betts
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.63 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .237R 21RBI 24SB 0
Betts is a buy — contact skill stable, unlucky on BABIP.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.1%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
210 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
259 / 160 PA
wOBA.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
259 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.8%vs his norm —
259 / 60 PA
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
259 / 120 PA
BABIP.226
lg avg .295 ▼−.069vs his norm −.061 ▼BABIP is below his ~.287 norm — expect it to rise.
210 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %5.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
259 / 50 PA
Chase %19.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−8.8%vs his norm —
259 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.1%→8.1%signal4 HR — Barrel% 8.1% (signal) tempered to career ~8.0% → projected 8.1%.
BABIP 0.226→0.255 regressednoise.237 AVG — BABIP 0.226 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.265 (xBA 0.275) → 0.255.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~170 projected PA.
slugging + lineup24 RBI — his RBI rate over ~170 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 26 G) over ~170 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.