456 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW
Mookie Betts
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.63 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .230R 5RBI 6SB 0
Betts is a buy — the contact is earned and the luck is absent.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %7.4%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
366 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %38.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
366 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
366 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
456 / 160 PA
wOBA.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
456 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.8%vs his norm —
456 / 60 PA
Walk %8.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
456 / 120 PA
BABIP.241
lg avg .295 ▼−.054vs his norm −.046 ▼BABIP is below his ~.287 norm — expect it to rise.
366 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %5.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
456 / 50 PA
Chase %20.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−8.1%vs his norm —
456 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.4%→7.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 7.4% (signal) lifted to career ~8.0% → projected 7.6%.
BABIP 0.241→0.253 regressednoise.230 AVG — BABIP 0.241 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.264 (xBA 0.274) → 0.253.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 26 G) over ~39 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.