MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Michael McGreevy
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Michael McGreevy

STL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 5.34 is 2.33 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 38ERA 4.91WHIP 1.26W 2–4SV 0

McGreevy is a sell-high — ERA is a BABIP mirage.

His ERA sits at 3.01, but that number is built on a foundation of noise. The mechanism keeping runs off the board is an unsustainably low BABIP-against of .254 — 41 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 312, so that gap is luck, not a repeatable skill. His expected ERA is 5.34 — two and a half runs higher than the box score — and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. The underlying metrics confirm the regression is real: he allows hard contact at a 40.4% rate and barrels at 9.3%, both near or above league average, and his strikeout rate is 16.5%, well below the 22% league norm. The xwOBA allowed is .353, 38 points above average. There is no elite stuff to lean on when the BABIP normalizes. Sell high. Projected 38 K and 4.91 ERA: this is a streaming-only play in deeper formats, not a roster-anywhere arm.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %5.7%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~5.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %16.5%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~16.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.34 is 2.33 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.4%
40.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
312 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
312 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.353
.353*
lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —
401 / 200 TBF
xERA5.34
5.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.24vs his norm —
401 / 200 TBF
ERA3.01
3.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.09vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
101.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.5%
norm16.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
401 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
norm5.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
401 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
.254*
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
312 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
401 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.0%
29.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
401 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.6 mph
91.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphvs his norm —
1588 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.5%→16.3%signal38 K — K% 16.5% (signal) tempered to career ~16.0% → projected 16.3% over ~58 remaining…
xERA 5.34signal4.91 ERA — xERA 5.34 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 66 IP.
BB% 5.7% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop38 K ROS, 4.91 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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