Is Michael McGreevy a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Michael McGreevy's rest-of-season outlook?

3.95 ERA hiding a 5.37 xERA and 16% strikeouts.

week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL-HIGH

Michael McGreevy

STL·P

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xERA 5.37 +1.27 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90

ROSK 0ERA 4.93WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0

McGreevy is a sell — the skill is short and no luck is hiding it.

His expected ERA is 5.37, a full 1.27 runs above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 702 batters — far past the 200 where that number becomes reliable. There is no luck story to hide behind. His strikeout rate is 16.4%, well below the league's 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.0% sits two points under league, so the weak contact-suppression numbers are not bad bounces — they are who he is. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, not settling. Nothing in the profile points toward a turnaround. The bats are making harder contact than league average and the strikeouts are not coming to bail him out. Sell. 0 K and a 4.93 ERA ROS make him waiver-wire streaming-only; drop, no hold here.

VS His Norm

Walk %6.8%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~5.2% career norm
Strikeout %16.4%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~16.0% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.37 +1.27 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed41.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —

538 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

538 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.351

lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —

702 / 200 TBF

xERA5.37

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.27vs his norm —

702 / 200 TBF

ERA3.95

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

168.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %16.4%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm +0.4% ▲

702 / 70 TBF

Walk %6.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +1.6% ▲

702 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.284

lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

538 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —

702 / 60 TBF

Chase %28.5%

lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —

702 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo91.9 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —

2774 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 16.4%→16.3%signal0 K — K% 16.4% (signal) tempered to career ~16.0% → projected 16.3% over ~0 remaining IP.

xERA 5.37signal4.93 ERA — xERA 5.37 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 66 IP.

BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.93 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons