week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Michael McGreevy
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
McGreevy is a sell-high — BABIP mirage won't last.
His ERA is 2.98, but that number is a fossil waiting to be dug up. The culprit is a BABIP-against of .249, 46 points below league average, on a 201-BIP sample — that is pure noise. BABIP-against needs 800 balls in play to settle. The real run-prevention picture is his xERA of 5.66, which is 2.68 runs above the ERA. His strikeout rate is 16.8% — well below league — and he gives up hard contact at a 41.3% clip and barrels at 10.0%, both above average. His xwOBA allowed is .368, 53 points above league. With a walk rate just below league average and his xERA stepping up as the sample grows, the regression is already baked in. Sell high before the ERA catches up.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.249 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 5.66 is 2.68 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL201 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL201 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.368
lg avg .315 ▲+.053trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL262 / 200 TBF
xERA5.66
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.56trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL262 / 200 TBF
ERA2.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.12too early to trust
NOISE66.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL262 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL262 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.249
lg avg .295 ▼−.046too early to trust
NOISE201 / 800 BIP