Is Michael McGreevy a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Michael McGreevy's rest-of-season outlook?

3.92 ERA hides a 5.36 xERA and 16.7% K rate

week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL-HIGH

Michael McGreevy

STL·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xERA 5.36 +1.26 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90

ROSK 9ERA 4.92WHIP 1.32W 0–1SV 0

McGreevy is a sell — his expected ERA says the skill isn't there.

His expected ERA is 5.36, a full run and a quarter above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced more than 600 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing on the luck side rescues him: his walk rate of 6.6% is fine and his xwOBA allowed of .352 sits 37 points above league, so the contact he permits is the problem. He strikes out 16.7% of batters, more than five points below league, and his swinging-strike rate of 8.8% is short of the 11% mark. The xERA has moved in the wrong direction across the sample, getting worse rather than settling. That is not a pitcher in line for positive regression; that is a pitcher whose true level is below the line. Sell. 9 K and 4.92 ERA ROS make him a drag — drop-tier, deep-league streaming-only at best.

VS His Norm

Walk %6.6%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~5.2% career norm
Strikeout %16.7%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~16.0% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.36 +1.26 vs league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed41.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —

486 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed9.7%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —

486 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.352

lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —

635 / 200 TBF

xERA5.36

lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.26vs his norm —

635 / 200 TBF

ERA3.92

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.18vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

154 / 200 IP

Strikeout %16.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm +0.7% ▲

635 / 70 TBF

Walk %6.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm +1.4% ▲

635 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.281

lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

486 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %8.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —

635 / 60 TBF

Chase %29.0%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —

635 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo91.8 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —

2504 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 16.7%→16.5%signal9 K — K% 16.7% (signal) tempered to career ~16.0% → projected 16.5% over ~13 remaining IP.

xERA 5.36signal4.92 ERA — xERA 5.36 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 66 IP.

BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop9 K ROS, 4.92 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons