MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Drew Romo
203 PA · week 27
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Drew Romo

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 27, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.262 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.66
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Romo is a sell — the bat is short of league in every way.

He is averaging 84.3 mph off the bat, roughly five mph below league, and his 26.3% hard-hit rate is 14 points short of average. Those contact numbers have had 133 batted balls to settle, so they are not noise. His expected wOBA is .262, .053 below league average, and his actual wOBA of .241 sits right there with it. No luck is dragging the line down — the results match the skill. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, which is the wrong direction for anyone hoping the bat comes around. The strikeout rate is near league and the walk rate is fine, but the quality of contact behind them is not. There is no adjustment coming that fixes this. Sell. With a 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG ROS line, he's a drop — streaming-only, not a hold.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.262 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.3 mph
believable since Jun 784.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.7 mphvs his norm —
133 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %26.3%
26.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−13.7%vs his norm —
133 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.0%
6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
133 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.262
.262*
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —
203 / 160 PA
wOBA.241
.241*
lg avg .315 ▼−.074vs his norm —
203 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.2%
23.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
203 / 60 PA
Walk %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
203 / 120 PA
BABIP.145
.145*
lg avg .295 ▼−.150vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
133 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
15.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
203 / 50 PA
Chase %34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
203 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.0%→6.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 6.4%.
BABIP 0.145→0.216 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.145 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.188) → 0.216.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 20 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups