MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Angel Martínez
416 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Angel Martínez

CLE·LF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.58
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Martínez is a sell — the bat is climbing, not the profile

His expected wOBA is .299, sixteen points below the league average of .315, and with 416 plate appearances he has cleared the sample where that number becomes reliable. Meanwhile his actual wOBA is .326, sitting above league — a gap that flatters a profile the contact quality does not support. He averages 87.5 mph off the bat, below the 89.0 league mark, and his 35.5% hard-hit rate trails the league's 40.0%. That is not a lineup piece; it is a hitter getting results his contact does not earn. The expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, so this is drifting in the wrong direction. The swing decisions confirm the concern: he chases 42.8% of pitches outside the zone against a league average of 28.5%, and his walk rate is 3.1%. There is no luck story to lean on and no contact quality underneath. Sell. A .000 AVG line across 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB is streaming-only — cold waiver-wire fodder, droppable.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.2%—+4.2% ▲vs his ~3.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.299 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.5 mph
87.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
305 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.5%
35.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
305 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +4.2% ▲
305 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.299
.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
416 / 160 PA
wOBA.326
believable since May 30.326*
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —
416 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.9%
21.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
416 / 60 PA
Walk %3.1%
3.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
416 / 120 PA
BABIP.288
norm.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm +.017 ▲BABIP is above his ~.271 norm — expect it to fall.
305 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
416 / 50 PA
Chase %42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+14.3%vs his norm —
416 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.2%→5.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.2% (signal) tempered to career ~3.0% → projected 5.5%.
BABIP 0.288→0.278 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.288 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.271 (xBA 0.251) → 0.278.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (8 in 55 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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