344 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekBUY-LOW
Austin Wells
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .185R 4RBI 2SB 0
Wells is a sell — his bat is below league and there's no luck to blame.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.7%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~10.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
210 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
210 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.290
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —
344 / 160 PA
wOBA.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —
344 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
344 / 60 PA
Walk %10.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
344 / 120 PA
BABIP.226
lg avg .295 ▼−.069vs his norm −.024 ▼BABIP is below his ~.250 norm — expect it to rise.
210 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
344 / 50 PA
Chase %28.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
344 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.7%→8.3%signal1 HR — Barrel% 6.7% (signal) lifted to career ~10.1% → projected 8.3%.
BABIP 0.226→0.246 regressednoise.185 AVG — BABIP 0.226 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.253 (xBA 0.210) → 0.246.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 44 G) over ~39 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.