220 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
Austin Wells
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.188 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.71 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .187R 16RBI 8SB 0
Wells is a buy-low — BABIP slump hiding real contact gains.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.7%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~10.1% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.188 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
135 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
135 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
135 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.285
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —
220 / 160 PA
wOBA.229
lg avg .315 ▼−.086vs his norm —
220 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
220 / 60 PA
Walk %10.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
220 / 120 PA
BABIP.188
lg avg .295 ▼−.107vs his norm −.062 ▼BABIP is below his ~.250 norm — expect it to rise.
135 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
220 / 50 PA
Chase %30.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
220 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.7%→8.7%signal4 HR — Barrel% 6.7% (signal) lifted to career ~10.1% → projected 8.7%.
BABIP 0.188→0.239 regressednoise.187 AVG — BABIP 0.188 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.249 (xBA 0.207) → 0.239.
on-base + lineup16 R — his run rate over ~171 projected PA.
slugging + lineup8 RBI — his RBI rate over ~171 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 44 G) over ~171 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.