MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Juan Morillo
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Juan Morillo

AZ·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.45, 1.65 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.45WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0

Morillo is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and earned.

His expected ERA is 2.45, a run and a half below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact quality backs it up: he allows a 3.1% barrel rate against a league average of 8.0%, and a .243 expected wOBA allowed against .315. Nothing here is luck. He strikes out 28% of batters, well above league, with a 14.5% swinging-strike rate and a 35.9% chase rate that both clear league by a wide margin. His fastball is sitting at 98.6 mph, up across the sample, and the expected ERA has been stepping down alongside it. That is a pitcher getting better, not one riding a hot streak. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. The 2.45 ERA and 1.24 WHIP make him a standard-league asset; the 0 SV caps the ceiling, so acquire now as a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.7%—−3.2% ▼vs his ~11.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %28.0%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.45, 1.65 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.1%
believable since Jun 43.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
162 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.243
.243*
lg avg .315 ▼−.072vs his norm —
264 / 200 TBF
xERA2.45
2.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.65vs his norm —
264 / 200 TBF
ERA2.24
2.24*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.86vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
64.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.0%
norm28.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
264 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
norm8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −3.2% ▼
264 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.266
.266*
lg avg .295 ▼−.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
162 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
14.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
264 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.9%
35.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
264 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.6 mph
98.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.6 mphvs his norm —
1041 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.0%→27.2%signal0 K — K% 28.0% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 27.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.45signal2.45 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.45 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard1 SV, 2.45 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups