MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Juan Morillo
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Juan Morillo

AZ·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.47, 1.63 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 6ERA 2.47WHIP 1.25W 0–0SV 0–0

Morillo is a buy — the fastball and the numbers are both real.

His expected ERA is 2.47, 1.63 runs better than the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. That is not a fluke of sequencing — his contact suppression backs it up. He allows a 31.7% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40%, and just 3.4% barrels against a league average of 8%. His expected wOBA allowed is .245, far below the .315 league mark. The stuff is behind it: 98.7 mph on the fastball, 4.7 mph above league, and it has been ticking up across the sample while his expected ERA has been stepping down. He strikes out 28.3% of hitters. This is earned run prevention. Buy. 6 K and a 2.47 ERA is an asset worth adding now — the ratios carry the value even without saves.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.9%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~11.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %28.3%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.47, 1.63 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.3%vs his norm —
145 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.4%
believable since Jun 43.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
145 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.245
.245*
lg avg .315 ▼−.070vs his norm —
237 / 200 TBF
xERA2.47
2.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.63vs his norm —
237 / 200 TBF
ERA2.33
2.33*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.77vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
58 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.3%
norm28.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
237 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
237 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
.270*
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.7%
14.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
237 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.6%
35.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
237 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.7 mph
98.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.7 mphvs his norm —
949 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.3%→27.3%signal6 K — K% 28.3% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 27.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.47signal2.47 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.47 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.9% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard1 SV, 2.47 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups