week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Juan Morillo
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.39); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.65WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 1–1
Morillo is a hold — skill metrics near average but sample is thin.
ROS projects K 30 YTD → 25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.4%—+3.3% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.39)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —
92 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
92 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.242
lg avg .315 ▼−.073vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 200 TBF
xERA2.39
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.71vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
153 / 200 TBF
ERA2.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.21vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
37.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm +3.3% ▲
153 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −2.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.9% norm — expect it to rise.
153 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
92 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
153 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.6 mphvs his norm —
594 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.4%→27.5%signal25 K — K% 29.4% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 27.5% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 2.39noise3.65 ERA — xERA 2.39 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.25 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.65 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.