MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dominic Canzone
254 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Dominic Canzone

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.372, +0.057 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.71
ROSHR 6AVG .252R 20RBI 26SB 1

Canzone is a buy — elite contact, steadily improving.

His expected wOBA sits at .372, .057 above league average, and he has enough plate appearances for that to be reliable. His actual wOBA of .369 tracks right alongside it, so he is not getting lucky. The engine is his contact quality: 92.8 mph average exit velocity, a 48.3% hard-hit rate — both well above league — and his hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample, with 176 batted balls past every stabilization point. A 15.3% barrel rate, nearly double the league mark, seals it. He keeps his strikeouts below league average and his walk rate is solid. His chase rate is a hair elevated (32.8% vs. 28.5%), but it is not hurting his overall production. The skill is earning the line. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %15.3%+2.5%vs his ~12.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.372, +0.057 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +3.8 mphvs his norm —
176 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.3%
48.3%*
lg avg 40.0% +8.3%vs his norm —
176 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.3%
norm15.3%*
lg avg 8.0% +7.3%vs his norm +2.5%
176 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.372
believable since Jun 9.372*
lg avg .315 +.057vs his norm —
254 / 160 PA
wOBA.369
.369*
lg avg .315 +.054vs his norm —
254 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.9%
20.9%*
lg avg 22.0% −1.1%vs his norm —
254 / 60 PA
Walk %8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.5% +0.2%vs his norm —
254 / 120 PA
BABIP.280
norm.280*
lg avg .295 −.015vs his norm +.007 BABIP is above his ~.273 normexpect it to fall.
176 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% +2.2%vs his norm —
254 / 50 PA
Chase %32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 28.5% +4.3%vs his norm —
254 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 15.3%→14.0%signal6 HR — Barrel% 15.3% (signal) tempered to career ~12.8% → projected 14.0%.
BABIP 0.280→0.299 regressednoise.252 AVG — BABIP 0.280 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.305 (xBA 0.275) → 0.299.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~158 projected PA.
slugging + lineup26 RBI — his RBI rate over ~158 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 52 G) over ~158 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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