MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dominic Canzone
533 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Dominic Canzone

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.359, +0.044 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.69
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Canzone is a buy — the contact gains are real and rising.

His hard-hit rate is 44.9% and it has been climbing across the sample, so the quality of contact is not just good, it is getting better. That contact is backed by 91.1 mph average exit velocity and a 12.2% barrel rate, both comfortably above league, on 370 batted balls — well past the point where those numbers become reliable. The results match the process: his expected wOBA is .359, .044 above league, and his actual wOBA of .354 tracks it almost exactly. Nothing on this line is being propped up by bounces. He strikes out less than league average at 20.6%, and his walk rate is solid. The gains are showing up in both the contact and the expected production, and the direction is up. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %12.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~12.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.359, +0.044 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.1 mph
91.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
370 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
370 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.2%
norm12.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
370 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.359
believable since Jun 9.359*
lg avg .315 ▲+.044vs his norm —
533 / 160 PA
wOBA.354
.354*
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —
533 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.6%
20.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
533 / 60 PA
Walk %9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
533 / 120 PA
BABIP.297
norm.297*
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm +.024 ▲BABIP is above his ~.273 norm — expect it to fall.
370 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
533 / 50 PA
Chase %34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
533 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.2%→12.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 12.2% (signal) lifted to career ~12.8% → projected 12.4%.
BABIP 0.297→0.300 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.297 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.302 (xBA 0.273) → 0.300.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 52 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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