188 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Andrés Chaparro
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.349 is 0.033 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.294 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .240HR 0R 3RBI 4SB 0
Chaparro is a sell-high — his line outraces his true skill
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %12.6%—+4.8% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.294 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
119 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
119 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +4.8% ▲
119 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.349
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —
188 / 160 PA
wOBA.382
lg avg .315 ▲+.067vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
188 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
188 / 60 PA
Walk %11.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
188 / 120 PA
BABIP.294
lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm +.053 ▲BABIP is above his ~.241 norm — expect it to fall.
119 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
188 / 50 PA
Chase %31.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
188 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.6%→9.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 12.6% (signal) tempered to career ~7.8% → projected 9.6%.
BABIP 0.294→0.293 regressednoise.240 AVG — BABIP 0.294 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.293 (xBA 0.239) → 0.293.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~28 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~28 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 13 G) over ~28 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.