65 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Andrés Chaparro
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.325); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .217HR 3R 13RBI 18SB 0
Chaparro is a hold — limited data, no edge yet.
ROS projects AVG .190 YTD → .217 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.325)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is above the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to fall.
36 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
36 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +3.3% ▲Barrel % is above his ~7.8% norm — expect it to fall.
36 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.325
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
65 / 160 PA
wOBA.277
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
65 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
65 / 60 PA
Walk %15.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
65 / 120 PA
BABIP.229
lg avg .295 ▼−.066vs his norm −.012 ▼BABIP is below his ~.241 norm — expect it to rise.
36 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
65 / 50 PA
Chase %29.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
65 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.1%→8.3%noise3 HR — Barrel% 11.1% (noise) tempered to career ~7.8% → projected 8.3%.
BABIP 0.229→0.256 regressednoise.217 AVG — BABIP 0.229 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.210) → 0.256.
on-base + lineup13 R — his run rate over ~119 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~119 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 13 G) over ~119 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.