MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryan Hudson
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Bryan Hudson

CWS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.20 sits 0.90 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.332 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.76
ROSK 0ERA 3.20WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0–0

Hudson is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.

His xERA is 3.20, nine-tenths of a run better than the league average of 4.10, and his sample is past the point where that number holds. The batted-ball profile backs it up: a 4.0% barrel rate allowed against a league average of 8.0% and a .277 expected wOBA allowed against .315. The problem is his BABIP-against, .332 against a league average of .295. That stat needs around 800 balls in play before it means anything and he has 200, so the gap is luck dragging his ERA to 3.74. His fastball is averaging 91.9 mph and stable across a thousand-plus pitches, and the strikeout rate and walk rate are league-average or better, so there is no crumbling skill underneath. The arm that suppresses contact is real; the ERA is not telling you that story yet. Buy low. The ROS line holds at 0 K / 3.20 ERA / 1.30 WHIP — a deep-league stash, not a roster-anywhere arm, but the dip is worth it.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.9%—−3.9% ▼vs his ~24.8% career norm
  • Walk %6.4%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.20 sits 0.90 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.332 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%
37.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
200 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.0%
4.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
200 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.277
believable since Aug 7.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —
282 / 200 TBF
xERA3.20
3.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.90vs his norm —
282 / 200 TBF
ERA3.74
3.74*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.36vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
67.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.9%
norm20.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −3.9% ▼
282 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
282 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.332
.332*
lg avg .295 ▲+.037vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
200 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
282 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.1%
25.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.4%vs his norm —
282 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.9 mph
91.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
1057 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.9%→22.5%signal0 K — K% 20.9% (signal) lifted to career ~24.8% → projected 22.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.20signal3.20 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.20 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.33 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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