MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
103 PA · week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Luis Campusano

SD·C
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell High BABIP 0.345 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.339 is 0.047 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.67
ROSHR 2AVG .208R 19RBI 21SB 0

Campusano is a sell-high — BABIP-driven line, regression ahead.

His actual wOBA is .386, but that number is being inflated by a .345 BABIP — fifty points above league average — with only 62 balls in play. BABIP needs 800 to be reliable. His expected wOBA is .339, a realistic skill level that's still above average but .047 below the surface. Contact quality is mixed: hard-hit rate is a solid 45.2%, but average exit velocity sits at 87.3 mph, below league. Strikeout and chase rates are near average, so there's no hidden star. The gap between surface and skill is the sell-high window. Sell high. 2 HR / 19 R / 21 RBI / 0 SB / .208 AVG make him a drop, not a roster-anywhere asset.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.7%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.345 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.339 is 0.047 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph
87.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
62 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.2%
45.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
62 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.7%
normbelievable since Jul 279.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
62 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 160 PA
wOBA.386
.386*
lg avg .315 ▲+.071vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.3%
24.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
103 / 60 PA
Walk %14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 120 PA
BABIP.345
norm.345*
lg avg .295 ▲+.050vs his norm +.078 ▲BABIP is above his ~.267 norm — expect it to fall.
62 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
103 / 50 PA
Chase %26.6%
26.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
103 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.7%→6.7%signal2 HR — Barrel% 9.7% (signal) tempered to career ~5.8% → projected 6.7%.
BABIP 0.345→0.274 regressednoise.208 AVG — BABIP 0.345 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.268 (xBA 0.241) → 0.274.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~121 projected PA.
slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~121 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 18 G) over ~121 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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