MLB Daily DeltaWeek 14 · June 25, 2026
week 14
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Kody Funderburk

MIN·P
data as of June 25, 2026·week 14
Sell High strikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.192 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.17 is 1.73 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 23ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 1–3

Funderburk is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.

His ERA sits at 3.44, but the number keeping runs off the board is a .192 BABIP-against, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 54 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.17, nearly two runs higher, pointing at regression. His strikeout rate has fallen to 12.2%, well below his 21.4% career baseline and the league average of 22%, so there is no elite-stuff story to lean on. His swinging-strike and chase rates are also well below league, confirming the lack of whiff potential. The luck is masking a below-average pitcher. Sell high. With 23 K and 1-3 SV projections, Funderburk is a deep-league sell-high window before regression hits hard.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %12.2%—−9.2% ▼vs his ~21.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.192 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.17 is 1.73 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 12% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.8%
believable since May 3027.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.2%vs his norm —
54 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.7%
3.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
54 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.350
.350*
lg avg .315 ▲+.035vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
xERA5.17
5.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.07vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
ERA3.44
3.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
18.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %12.2%
norm12.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.8%vs his norm −9.2% ▼
82 / 70 TBF
Walk %19.5%
norm19.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+11.5%vs his norm +8.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.4% norm — expect it to fall.
82 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.192
.192*
lg avg .295 ▼−.103vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
54 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Chase %19.3%
19.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
92.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
309 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 12.2%→18.7%signal23 K — K% 12.2% (signal) lifted to career ~21.4% → projected 18.7% over ~27 remaining IP.
xERA 5.17noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.17 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 19.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 20% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 2.09 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-3 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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