MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mark Vientos
254 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Mark Vientos

NYM·1B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.234 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.66
ROSHR 5AVG .222R 18RBI 24SB 0

Vientos is a buy-low — his hard-hit rate is climbing.

His actual wOBA is .280, but the underlying contact quality tells a different story. His hard-hit rate is 43.8%, above league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample — the bat is not the problem. The reason his surface line is cold is BABIP, which sits at .234 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 178, so that gap is noise, not skill. His exit velocity, barrel rate, and expected wOBA are all near or above league thresholds and stable. The strikeout rate is slightly elevated and the walk rate is low, but the contact quality is intact. The slump is luck, not the hitter. Buy low.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.1%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.234 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
89.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
178 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.8%
43.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
178 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
178 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.310
.310*
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
254 / 160 PA
wOBA.280
.280*
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —
254 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.0%
24.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
254 / 60 PA
Walk %4.7%
4.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
254 / 120 PA
BABIP.234
norm.234*
lg avg .295 ▼−.061vs his norm −.058 ▼BABIP is below his ~.292 norm — expect it to rise.
178 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.2%
17.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
254 / 50 PA
Chase %36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
254 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.1%→11.3%signal5 HR — Barrel% 10.1% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 11.3%.
BABIP 0.234→0.255 regressednoise.222 AVG — BABIP 0.234 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.261 (xBA 0.234) → 0.255.
on-base + lineup18 R — his run rate over ~179 projected PA.
slugging + lineup24 RBI — his RBI rate over ~179 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 52 G) over ~179 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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