298 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
José Caballero
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.271 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .222HR 2R 20RBI 15SB 14
Caballero is a sell — his bat is below league with no luck to blame.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %3.8%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~5.0% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.271 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.2 mphvs his norm —
208 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %24.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.4%vs his norm —
208 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
208 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
298 / 160 PA
wOBA.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
298 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
298 / 60 PA
Walk %5.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
298 / 120 PA
BABIP.296
lg avg .295 ▲+.001vs his norm −.013 ▼BABIP is below his ~.309 norm — expect it to rise.
208 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
298 / 50 PA
Chase %36.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
298 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.8%→4.4%signal2 HR — Barrel% 3.8% (signal) lifted to career ~5.0% → projected 4.4%.
BABIP 0.296→0.265 regressednoise.222 AVG — BABIP 0.296 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.254 (xBA 0.226) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~173 projected PA.
slugging + lineup15 RBI — his RBI rate over ~173 projected PA.
run rate / role14 SB — his steal rate (14 in 49 G) over ~173 projected PA.
rosterdeep28 SB
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.